India #1 for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025

[dan_s]

From Energy Investor Weekly Briefs:

We first started seeing signs of this a while ago, and it’s become clear that India is going to play a critical role in global oil demand growth going forward.

Now, everyone else is starting to realize that too.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), India is expected to be the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, surpassing China. This is a big shift from the last 25 years, when China's oil consumption consistently grew more than India's almost every year.

Now, while China's demand growth is slowing down, India's consumption of liquid fuels is expected to increase by 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 330,000 b/d in 2025. We can thank the country’s growing thirst for transportation fuels and fuels for home cooking for that.

In fact, India is expected to account for 25% of global liquid fuel demand in 2025; the EIA is projecting global consumption to grow 1.3 million barrels per day this year.

In contrast, China's liquid fuel consumption is expected to grow by 90,000 b/d in 2024 and 250,000 b/d in 2025. The slower growth in China is due to factors like the increasing use of electric vehicles, more liquefied natural gas in trucking, a declining population, and a deceleration of economic growth.

Although India's growth surpasses China's in percentage and volume, keep in mind that China is still a massive consumer of petroleum. China’s demand stands at more than 16 million barrels per day — three times more than India.