Energy Prospectus

Here are the NGas draws expected over the next four weeks remaining in January.
These are from the CelsiusEnergy.net website:

Week Ending / Forecast / 5-Yr Ave Draw

January 10 / 251 Bcf / 132 Bcf
January 17 / 260 Bcf / 175 Bcf < If accurate, the NGas in storage will be BELOW the 5-year ave on Jan. 17
January 24 / 251 Bcf / 187 Bcf
January 31 / 198 Bcf / 170 Bcf

In addition to one of the coldest Januarys on record in the eastern U.S., LNG exports are also setting records.

If larger than average draws continue into February, U.S. natural gas prices at Henry Hub, Louisiana should stay higher than the NGas prices my forecasts are based on. Keep in mind that we just need average winter weather in the eastern U.S. to get to the end of March with a storage deficit.

Well freeze offs have also lowered supply by several Bcfpd.

Now go to this website: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

Crude Oil < My Q1 2025 forecasts are based on $70/bbl WTI
Crude Oil futures for February settled up $2.65 or 3.585% at $76.57.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, marking the highest level since October, amid news of the U.S. Treasury preparing to implement strict sanctions on Russian oil. These measures are expected to impact 180 ships, major Russian oil companies, leading executives, and maritime insurers, potentially causing significant disruptions for key buyers like India and China. The sanctions are reported to include Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and insurance providers responsible for covering most vessels transporting Russian oil to India. Introduced just before Donald Trump's presidential inauguration, the timing suggests the new administration may retain these measures as leverage in negotiations related to Ukraine. Meanwhile, forecasts predict below-average temperatures across central and eastern U.S., with parts of Europe also experiencing an unusually cold start to the year.


Natural Gas < My Q1 2025 forecasts are based on $3.25/MMBtu NGas prices at HH.
Natural Gas futures for February settled up $.288 or 7.782% at $3.989.
Natural gas prices experienced a big surge on Friday, as forecasts predicted colder weather and higher heating demand in the coming weeks. Meteorologists anticipate below-average temperatures across much of the US through January 25, with the chilliest days still ahead. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached record highs, with feedgas flows rising to 15.5 billion cubic feet per day, driven in part by increased activity at the new Plaquemines LNG facility in Texas. At the same time, production appeared to stabilize as freeze-offs, which limit output during cold spells, started to subside. Over the week, natural gas prices gained more than 17%, bouncing back after recent declines.