Top Picks in the Sweet 16 for natural gas

[dan_s]

1. Crescent Energy (CRGY) because it is off the Wall Street Gang's radar screen and South Texas has direct pipeline access to LNG export facilities.
The next four are large-caps
2. Coterra Energy (CTRA)
3. Antero Resources (AR)
4. Range Resources (RRC)
5. EQT Corp. (EQT) for those of you that know that size does matter in this business.

The outlook for U.S. natural gas prices is very bullish. Go here to see why: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

If HH NGas averages $4.00 in 2025 and 2026, the five companies above will be very profitable.

At the time of this post the JAN26 NYMEX contract for HH NGas was trading at $4.77/MMBtu.

[dan_s]

Today: Mizuho raised the firm’s price target on Crescent Energy (CRGY) to $17 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects a relatively in-line quarter for Crescent Energy, with oil volumes and pricing near consensus, EBITDX modestly below, and free cash flow ahead of expectations, though the bigger focus will be the 2025 outlook given the recent Ridgemar acquisition and Crescent’s increasingly positive view on natural gas prices and fundamentals, which may prompt some reallocation of capital into gassier EFS areas in 2025 and beyond, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

My current valuation of CRGY is $25/share.

[mrbill]

Saw this in the a.m. and it seemed on the low end of the others out there. People don't know the good story on SBOW and now CRGY. Natgas and oil in Central Energy friendly Texas. The "Herd" will wake up and tell their brokers "get me in natgas" if they have not already. Thanks for this one Dan. PR perking up too. You got us in ahead of the "Herd" which is why we follow you/EPG.

[dan_s]

This morning, I was interviewed on the KE Report for a podcast which will be aired on Saturday. I told them that CRGY was my Top Pick in our Sweet 16 for natural gas because it is below the Wall Street Gang's radar screen.

Crescent Energy's production increased
8.2% year-over-year in 2023
34.5% YOY in 2024, primarily due to the merger with SilverBow Resources
It should increase another 37.8% YOY in 2025, primarily due to a full year of SilverBow production and the Ridgemar Energy Acquisition that will close this quarter adding ~20,000 Boepd (70% oil). < This is not a small-cap. 2025 operating cash flow should exceed $2 Billion. Free cash flow should be about $800 million this year.

2025 production should be ~277,000 Boepd with mix of 43.5% natural gas, 17.5% NGLs and 39.0% crude oil

Q1 oil and gas prices are much higher already than the prices that I used in the model, so the Company is going to get off to a great start in 2025.

[dan_s]

Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial has increased his price target by $3 to $21 per share in a new report sent to TipRanks.