Page 1 of 1

Veren Announces 2024 Reserves & Board Appointments

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2025 10:16 am
by Petroleum economist
CALGARY, AB, Jan. 21, 2025 /CNW/ - Veren Inc. ("Veren", or the "Company") (TSX: VRN) (NYSE: VRN) is pleased to announce the results from its 2024 independent reserves report, provide an update on its operations and announce the appointment of two independent board members.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Strong reserve additions, replacing 173 percent of 2024 annual production on a 2P basis.
Alberta Montney asset contributed 65 percent of the 2P reserve additions.
Achieved strong exit production in 2024 with full year production in-line with guidance.
Addition of two independent directors with extensive industry knowledge and experience to the Board.
"Our strong reserve additions, driven by both our Alberta Montney and Kaybob Duvernay assets, continue to demonstrate the depth and quality of our asset base as we execute our long-term plan," said Craig Bryksa, President and CEO of Veren. "We organically replaced 173 percent of our annual production, marking our highest reserve replacement in the last five years. As we start the year, we remain excited about our program under which we expect to generate significant excess cash flow and returns for shareholders."

RESERVES HIGHLIGHTS
The Company's reserves at year-end 2024, excluding the impact of acquisitions and dispositions ("A&D"), increased across all categories driven by organic additions. Proved plus Probable ("2P") reserves totaled 1,133.3 million boe ("MMboe"), Proved ("1P") reserves totaled 739.1 MMboe and Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") reserves totaled 333.1 MMboe.
The Company's 2P reserve life index ("RLI") is approximately 16 years based on mid-point of 2025 annual average production guidance.
Veren achieved organic reserve additions of 121.4 MMboe on a 2P basis, excluding A&D, replacing 173 percent of its 2024 annual production. The Company's Alberta Montney asset contributed 65 percent of the reserve additions, with the remaining additions coming from its Kaybob Duvernay asset. Total reserve additions included 5.6 MMboe of positive technical revisions.
Veren's 2P net present value ("NPV"), before tax, was $14.0 billion at year-end 2024, based on independent engineering pricing. The Company's NPV, on a 1P and PDP basis, was $9.4 billion and $5.8 billion, respectively. The independent engineering price forecast assumes an average WTI price of approximately US$75.75/bbl and AECO price of approximately $3.30/Mcf over the first five years.
As at year-end 2024, over 65 percent of Veren's total premium drilling locations in its Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney assets were unbooked.
Additional information on Veren's 2024 reserves will be provided in its Annual Information Form ("AIF") for the year-ended December 31, 2024, which is expected to be available on February 27, 2025.

OPERATIONS UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Veren exited 2024 with strong December production of 190,296 boe/d, and fourth quarter average production of 188,721 boe/d. The Company's full year 2024 annual average production was 191,163 boe/d, which was in-line with its guidance of 191,000 boe/d.

Veren remains on track with its 2025 annual average production guidance of 188,000 to 196,000 boe/d (65% oil and liquids) based on development capital expenditures of $1.48 billion to $1.58 billion. The Company's capital program is weighted to the first half of the year, while its production is weighted to the second half based on the timing of its development program and planned facilities downtime in early 2025.

Veren expects to generate excess cash flow of $575 million to $775 million (US$70/bbl to US$75/bbl WTI and $2.00/Mcf AECO) in 2025. Due to the timing of its capital expenditures spending and production profile, a significant portion of the Company's excess cash flow in 2025 is expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS UPDATE
Veren is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Corey Bieber and Ms. Jodi J. Jenson Labrie to its Board of Directors.

"We are pleased and excited to welcome Corey and Jodi to Veren's Board of Directors, both of whom are highly accomplished and bring extensive industry knowledge and financial and management experience," said Barbara Munroe, Chair of the Board of Directors of Veren.

Mr. Bieber has over 35 years of financial and management experience within the energy industry. Most recently, Mr. Bieber served as an external Finance committee member at TransMountain Corporation. Prior thereto, Mr. Bieber held progressively senior and complex roles at Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., including the role of Chief Financial Officer from 2012 to 2018 and serving as an Executive Advisor from 2018 to 2022. Mr. Bieber holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Calgary and his Chartered Professional Accountant designation. Mr. Bieber previously served as a member of the Heart & Stroke Alberta Board.

Ms. Jenson Labrie is a highly accomplished financial executive with over 25 years of energy and professional services experience. Most recently, Ms. Jenson Labrie served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Enerplus Corporation from 2015 until the company's combination with Chord Energy in 2024. Ms. Jenson Labrie holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree, with Distinction, from the University of Calgary and both a Chartered Professional Accountant and a Chartered Business Valuator designation. Ms. Jenson Labrie is a member of the University of Calgary Board and previously served on the Board of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada.

Full biographies of all of Veren's Board members are available on the Company's website.

Summary of Reserves
The Company's reserves were independently evaluated by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel") effective as at December 31, 2024. The reserves evaluation and reporting was conducted in accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures contained in the COGEH and National Instrument 51-101 Standards for Disclosure of Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101").

There are more reserves tables in the press release. See the Veren website for details. I have only included the main table.

Re: Veren Announces 2024 Reserves & Board Appointments

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2025 10:21 am
by Petroleum economist
Summary
Veren reported 2024 reserves which were above expectation thanks to high autonomous reserves bookings. Q4 production encouraging exceeded Q3 production, thus indicating that the problems with well designs experienced in Q3 are in the past. The 2025 production outlook of 188-196 K BoE/d looks conservative and if Veren cannot beat it, then the 2029 production target of 250 K BoE/d may prove to be a pipe dream.

Reserves
• 2024 gross proven reserves( P1) of 739.1 M BoE/d were down 3.8% versus 2023 (768.3 M BoE),
• The reduction was due to the 2024 sale of Saskatchewan assets (Flat Lake and Battrum) with associated reserves of 73.1 M BoE (92% liquids).
• 2024 Reserves Replacement Ratio ( RRR) was a high 1.61 and well above 2023 RRR (0.73). Industry average RRR is 0.95-1.02. The 2024 RRR was the highest in the last six years.
• 2024 reserves are equivalent to a good 10.6 years of 2025 production. Industry average is 9.5-10.0 years.
• Due to the Flat Lake and Battrum disposition which had 91% liquids, the proven reserves have become gassier. The liquid content of the proven reserves dropped from 64.6% to 60.6%.
• 2024 oil reserves (261.2 M bbl) were down 15% versus 2023 (307.0 M bbl).
• 2024 gas reserves (1.745 tcf) were up 7% versus 2023 )1.629 tcf).
• NGL reserves (187 M bbl) were almost flat versus 2023 (189 M bbl).
• Proven + probable reserves (P2) declined from 1,202 M BoE to 1.133 M BoE.

Q4 production and 2025 outlook
• Q4 production of 188.7 K BoE/d was 2% above Q2 (184.8 K BoE/d), indicating that the effect of failed well concept in Q3 did not carry on in Q4.
• Q4 production was below Q1 (198.5 K BoE/d) and Q2 (195.2 K BoE/d) but these periods included 13.5 K BoE/d of the Flat Lake and Battrum assets which were sold to Saturn oil.
• In relation to the December production of 190.3 K BoE/d, the repeat of the 2025 outlook from October of 188-196 K BoE/d is a bit of a disappointment.
• The midpoint of the 2025 outlook (192 K BoE/d) is almost identical to the December production (190.3 K BoE/d) and not encouraging for the Veren repeated ambition to grow the production to 250 K BoE/d in 2029.
• If I assume that production can grow with a high 5% per year after 2025, then 2029 production will reach 235 K BoE/d, not 250 K BoE/d.
• Let’s hope the 2025 outlook is a case of underpromise and overdeliver.
• The indicated 2025 liquids content of 65% is well above the reserves liquids content (60.4%), meaning that production over time will become gassier.

2025 capex
• 2025 capex outlook (C$ 1,480-1,580 M) was C$ 80 M above the October outlook (C$ 1,400-1,800 M).
• The higher capex will reduce the 2025 FCF and thus the shareholder returns.

Conclusions
Veren Q4 production was OK, and the 2024 reserves results are encouraging. The 2025 outlook is low in relation to the 2029 production target
Profitability and shareholder returns will be updated once the full 2024 results have been announced. For the time being the 2025 eps with WTI = $ 70-75/bbl is estimated to be $ 0.92-1.10 (= low PE 4.9-5.9), 2025 shareholder returns can be a high 9.5%.

Veren ranks a high 14th in my 84 oil and gas companies ranking.