https://youtu.be/wxgTJriswIY?si=EWDBMds1a5cVAC8x
Interesting discussion on energy markets and fundamentals.
Elliot Gue: Oil Gas, Uranium
Re: Elliot Gue: Oil Gas, Uranium
Listen to the first 20 minutes to understand why "Drill Baby Drill" is not going to impact U.S. oil production growth. U.S. and Canadian upstream companies are not under control of the government. They will only increase their drilling programs if oil prices go higher. This is why I believe that WTI oil price will go higher once we get past the winter low demand period. Demand for oil-based transportation fuels always goes up about 2 million bpd starting in March.
Note received from HFI Research this morning (Jan 27):
"Outlook has brightened relates to oil macro. The major oil market analyst organizations, like the IEA, forecast inventory builds beginning in the first quarter, but they are not materializing. Moreover, real-time market readings imply that builds aren’t going to happen, at least not in the first quarter. Oil well freeze-offs in the U.S. are slated to further reduce first-quarter global supply by 500,000 bbl/d, improving the supply/demand balance. We expect low inventory builds at best in the subsequent quarters of 2025 and draws in 2026, barring a global recession."
ALWAYS REMEMBER that the people running the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in France know that the elites that sign their paychecks want lower oil prices. In my opinion, IEA over-stating oil supply growth and under-stating oil demand growth.
Note received from HFI Research this morning (Jan 27):
"Outlook has brightened relates to oil macro. The major oil market analyst organizations, like the IEA, forecast inventory builds beginning in the first quarter, but they are not materializing. Moreover, real-time market readings imply that builds aren’t going to happen, at least not in the first quarter. Oil well freeze-offs in the U.S. are slated to further reduce first-quarter global supply by 500,000 bbl/d, improving the supply/demand balance. We expect low inventory builds at best in the subsequent quarters of 2025 and draws in 2026, barring a global recession."
ALWAYS REMEMBER that the people running the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in France know that the elites that sign their paychecks want lower oil prices. In my opinion, IEA over-stating oil supply growth and under-stating oil demand growth.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group