Energy Prospectus

You should all watch the Elliot Gue interview at the link in the next post. I agree with Elliot that 2025 is the "Year of Natural Gas". U.S. NGas prices should move to the Right Price which is over $4.00/MMBtu.

At the time of this post the FEB26 NYMEX futures contact is down to $3.66/MMBtu. FEB26 is down because the Paper Traders must close their long positions today because the contract expires and they cannot take physical delivery of the gas.

MAR26 will become the front month contract. It is trading at $3.23/MMBtu.

Natural gas demand is seasonal, and it ALWAYS goes down in spring. EIA will be reporting a BIG DRAW from storage for the week ending January 24th of more than 300 Bcf on Thursday. U.S. NGas storage is NOW more than 100 Bcf below the 5-year average, but the U.S. definitely has enough natural gas in storage to make it through March. However, refilling storage before the next winter season arrives in November will be difficult if not impossible. < Refilling storage is not "optional". Utilities must do it or face significant penalties.

Take a look at the NYMEX strip for NGas here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html

NYMEX Strip Prices by quarter:
Q2 (APR25 to JUN25) average $3.39
Q3 (JUL25 to SEP25) average $3.77 < I expect the "Bidding War" in the futures market to push price much higher than this.
Q4 (OCT25 to DEC25) average $4.13 with DEC25 at $4.49
Q1 (JAN26 to MAR26) average $4.34 with JAN26 at $4.73

On the bottom of page 4 of today's "The View from Houston" newsletter you can find the oil & gas prices that I am now using to value all of the stocks in our three model portfolios.

Watch the WeatherBell Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

First half of February the COLD air will be in the Western U.S. but cold and lots of snow will return to the Midwest and Eastern U.S. in second half of February. The big ridge that is expected to move over Alaska sets up the potential for a major snowstorm in West Texas in a few weeks from now.

Lots of snow still to come for the Northeast U.S.

La Nina now in control, which means big peaks and valleys in the northern jet stream.