Energy Prospectus

As long as Canada and the U.S. don't get into a childish "Tit for Tat" tariff war the 10% tariff on Canadian oil and gas in no big deal.

1. Our Canadian companies don't sell all of their oil into the U.S.
2. The impact of the tariff will be split between the upstream companies and the refiners.
3. Hemisphere and InPlay sell oil based in U.S. dollars based on the WTI price. I expect WTI oil price to go up and the exchange rate may widen, so they will be getting more Canadian dollars per barrel.

Lots of logistics need to be worked out. It will take time, but 10% is much better than 25%. The companies need to get approval from the legal people before they can put out press releases. Don't panic. This is not that big of a deal.

This week will be interesting.

The Canadian government, whoever that is, needs to set up a meeting with Team Trump and see if the border issues can be resolved.

Mexico has a much larger problem.

Dan, a 10% tariff on Canadian Oil & Gas is “ NOT a WIN!"

Like most macro-economists will tell you, implementing general import tariffs is not helping the economy. Import tariffs will drive up domestic prices and will increase inflation. The unavoidable retaliation by the other countries will hurt exports, thus driving down GDP and reducing employment.

The impact of the 25% general import tariffs on Canada (10% on oil and gas) will hurt at either side of the border. The estimates I see show forecasts of a decline in GDP of 2-3% in Canada and -1% in the US. Inflation will pick-up with 1.0-1.5% and will cost the average American family $ 1,000-1,500 per year. Who wins? Nobody!

Tariffs can be justified if they are designed to protect a certain branch of industry against price dumping or products from low labor costs countries with low standards. This is not the case for Canada.

The reasons quoted by Trump (Fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration) could be valid if there was unwillingness of the Canadian government after consultation to implement counter measures. However, this consultation has not taken place.

Import tariffs for Canada are not justified and premature at best.

All Canada has to do is work with Trump to secure the border and stop the flow of drugs into the U.S. Canada's liberal government was supporting the flow of illegals into America. That should be easy to stop.

I agree 100% that the tariffs are bad, but 10% is better than 25% on oil & gas.

Good morning PE, are you absolutely sure that Canada has not consulted with Trump over his border desires? I believe Castro Jr made a visit to Mara Logo after Trump was elected to talk about this issue.
Canada and Mexico are at war with the US over its sovereignty and are doing the bidding for China's "opium war" against the US. They will continue as long as China is financially backstopping them. Trump knows this . Unfortunately more tariffs to come until Sheinbaum and Castro Jr. wake up from their Marxist stupor. None of this is pretty but it's necessary.

My WAG is a lot of these tariffs will be short lived.

Just in from Trump this morning on Mexico:

I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States. These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our Country. We further agreed to immediately pause the anticipated tariffs for a one month period during which we will have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico. I look forward to participating in those negotiations, with President Sheinbaum, as we attempt to achieve a “deal” between our two Countries.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754

All Canada has to do is work with Team Trump to actually shut down the flow of illegals and drugs crossing the northern border. It will be much cheaper and easier than a Tariff War.

Canadians must understand that during Biden's term in office, over 8 million illegals came into the U.S. Many of them are criminals and most of them are uneducated and unskilled. The U.S. is spending $billions per month supporting them. Our nation is deeply in debt. We cannot keep this up.

Canada, Mexico and the U.S. need to get serious about the drug problem. All nations will benefit.

Instead of spending $billions on foreign wars, it will be a much wiser "investment" to spend money in Western Hemisphere countries to build up their economies, so their people can have good jobs and higher standards of living.

Trump will pause the tariffs immediately if the Canadian government will just work with his team to secure the northern border.