EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 5

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 31, 2025

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending January 31, 2025, which was 159 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 84.5% of their operable capacity last week. < Low throughput is primary reason for crude oil inventory build.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, increased by 467 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 2.8% more than the same four-week period last year. < U.S. crude oil production was down last week due to well freeze offs.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 593 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 159 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are slightly above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.5 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year. < Heating oil demand way up and gasoline demand way down during winter storms.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels from last week and are 2% below the five year average for this time of year. < It has been several years since propane inventories have been below average. This is why I expect NGL prices to move higher.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, up by 3.3% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.3 million barrels a day, down by 0.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 13.7% from the same period last year. < Despite this increase distillate inventories are way below normal.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 4.6% compared with the same four week period last year.

[dan_s]

Propane at $0.91/gallon ($38.22/bbl) this morning.
Trading Economics: "Propane increased 0.13 USD/GAL or 17.15% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Propane reached an all time high of 1.67 in February of 2014."

[dan_s]

WTI crude oil futures extended its recent decline toward $72 per barrel on Wednesday as concerns over a US-China trade war outweighed supply risks stemming from President Trump's intensified economic pressure on Iran. On Tuesday, Trump reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero and counter its regional influence. The plan could affect approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, markets remained cautious after China retaliated against US tariffs with levies on American coal, LNG, and crude oil, raising fears of weaker global demand. On the supply side, API data showed that US crude inventories surged by 5.025 million barrels last week, surpassing expectations of a 3.17 million barrel build. Elsewhere, OPEC+ confirmed plans to gradually increase oil output from April.

US natural gas futures stood at $3.24/MMBtu as forecasts for milder weather and lower demand this week offset expectations of higher demand next week. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, surpassing January's 102.7 bcfd and December’s record 104.6 bcfd. However, daily output dropped to 105.3 bcfd on Wednesday from a record 106.5 bcfd on Jan. 31. Last week’s extreme cold drove heating demand to a record high, possibly leading to a record gas storage withdrawal. Meanwhile, gas flows to US LNG export plants hit 15.0 bcfd in February, surpassing January’s 14.6 bcfd and December’s record 14.7 bcfd. < LNG export capacity should be ramping up to 17.8 Bcf per day this year.