Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 2,297 Bcf as of Friday, February 7, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 100 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 248 Bcf less than last year at this time and 67 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,364 Bcf.
At 2,297 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Draw is 10 Bcf larger than the CelsiusEnergy forecast.

These are the CelsiusEnergy forecast draws for the next three weeks:
Week ending
Feb 14: 172 Bcf, which is 30 Bcf larger than the 5-year average
Feb 21: 251 Bcf, which is 108 Bcf larger than the 5-year average
Feb 28: 130 Bcf, which is 41 Bcf larger than the 5-year average
If these are the actual draws, storage will be 246 Bcf below the 5-year average at the end of February.

Total draws during these 3 weeks in 2024 were 205 Bcf, so storage will be 596 Bcf less than a year ago on February 28, 2024

Just because LNG exports will be 3 to 4 Bcfpd higher than they were in March 2024, I now expect storage to be more than 300 Bcf below the 5-year average on March 31, 2025 and more than 650 Bcf below where it was on March 31, 2024. < Refilling storage before the next winter heating season will be difficult and maybe impossible unless LNG exports are reduced. Plus, demand for U.S. natural gas will be increasing year-after-year.

Bottomline: If storage builds in April are lower than the 5-year average (likely due to LNG exports increasing), the "Bidding War" in the futures market will ramp up sooner than it did in August 2022.

Question: Dan, I understand barrels of oil, easy to count. I know how much has been released from the Strategic reserve. Easy to navigate. Natural case is a mystery, except comparison to the where we are relative to five year average.

Is there a number on the current total capacity? If so, then we could track the percent increase or decrease from week to week.

If this information is available graphically on a simple run chart, would be very useful.

I will try to find it on the web.

Cliff

Total storage capacity is ~4,200 Bcf, but it has never been full and it is never empty. It got close to 4,000 Bcf in November, 2020 and down to 1,100 Bcf in March, 2019.

More storage capacity needs to be built because of the increased demand for LNG exports and power generation will require a larger "cushion" during the winter heating season.

Since refilling storage before the next winter heating season begins is not optional, demand for natural gas will be much higher this summer than it was last year, about 5 Bcfpd higher.

Cliff

Try these.

Supply / Demand

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

Then, if you want to see historical production by FORMATION it's harder to find but not impossible

Navigate to EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, then Natural Gas, then Monthly-by-formation. Send that to an Excel and you can graph it.

Marcellus isn't growing materially, and really nothing else is much anymore. Export side is outpacing E&P.

As of 7am Central Time this morning, Everything is Green on CelsiusEnergy.net !
I don't think I've ever seen everything green!

Also, on the NOAA ENSO Blog it looks like the La Nina will be ending by April and replaced by neutral conditions.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso

So more cold weather now, and likely more hot weather this summer.
All great for NG demand.

Kevin