https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4FrJzPBiI8
In my opinion, Team Trump will NOT enforce tariffs on Canadian oil & gas exports to the U.S. If he does, U.S. gasoline and diesel prices will go up, increasing inflation. That is the last thing that Team Trump wants to happen.
The U.S. MUST HAVE Canadian heavy oil. Canadian oil is over 60% of U.S. oil imports.
Bullish Outlook for Canadian Upstream Companies - Feb 11
Bullish Outlook for Canadian Upstream Companies - Feb 11
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Bullish Outlook for Canadian Upstream Companies - Feb 11
Trump's "Maximum Pressure" on Iran will take 500,000 to 1,000,000 bpd off the market.
Saudi Arabia and UAE control almost all of OPEC+ spare capacity. They both need higher oil prices.
Saudi Arabia and UAE control almost all of OPEC+ spare capacity. They both need higher oil prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Bullish Outlook for Canadian Upstream Companies - Feb 11
My view FWIW is the following:
Generally the Canadian stocks that are followed in EPG are a good long term value proposition. Applies currently to both gassers and oily names.
The mineral reserves in Canada are vast in both oil including tar sands, as well as gas. There exists limited though some improvement recently in takeaway.
Those currently paying nice yielding dividends should be viewed as income plays. (IPOOF, Surge, Hemisphere). I see little hope of significant capital appreciation in the near term.
Those who have devoted a signicant amount of FCF stock buybacks (MEG eg) are also long term holds that will pay off handsomely some day but not in the Trump Presidency period.
Just a few reasons for conclusions:
Political uncertainty including that the Canadian Presidency is currently in indefinite limbo for at least 2025.
Uncertainty of Trump's policies in terms of all aspects including tariffs, sanctions on adversaries including new ones, potential lifting of old ones, setttlement of global conficts, etc creates an increased risk premium in the market. The ability to implement his favorable policies seem destined for endless court challenges tying up progress.
The survival of Trump is uncertain. he has taken on many formidable and dangerous enemies and many attempts have already been made on his life. Some appear to be embedded deep within the bowels of government. Think JFK.
The inability of the GOP to unite around Trump's policies is a major hindrance.
The impact on the enormous and ever increasing US debt load is a strain on all aspects of economies at home and abroad.
Weakened and contiunued erosion of $CAD.
My view is oil will stay in $65-$75 range for forseeable future.
Thus I believe the Canadian energy stocks are a good value investment for those having a time horizon greater than 5 years. Not a good buy for those conditioned to expect the kind of returns realized in the S & P over last 28 months.
Generally the Canadian stocks that are followed in EPG are a good long term value proposition. Applies currently to both gassers and oily names.
The mineral reserves in Canada are vast in both oil including tar sands, as well as gas. There exists limited though some improvement recently in takeaway.
Those currently paying nice yielding dividends should be viewed as income plays. (IPOOF, Surge, Hemisphere). I see little hope of significant capital appreciation in the near term.
Those who have devoted a signicant amount of FCF stock buybacks (MEG eg) are also long term holds that will pay off handsomely some day but not in the Trump Presidency period.
Just a few reasons for conclusions:
Political uncertainty including that the Canadian Presidency is currently in indefinite limbo for at least 2025.
Uncertainty of Trump's policies in terms of all aspects including tariffs, sanctions on adversaries including new ones, potential lifting of old ones, setttlement of global conficts, etc creates an increased risk premium in the market. The ability to implement his favorable policies seem destined for endless court challenges tying up progress.
The survival of Trump is uncertain. he has taken on many formidable and dangerous enemies and many attempts have already been made on his life. Some appear to be embedded deep within the bowels of government. Think JFK.
The inability of the GOP to unite around Trump's policies is a major hindrance.
The impact on the enormous and ever increasing US debt load is a strain on all aspects of economies at home and abroad.
Weakened and contiunued erosion of $CAD.
My view is oil will stay in $65-$75 range for forseeable future.
Thus I believe the Canadian energy stocks are a good value investment for those having a time horizon greater than 5 years. Not a good buy for those conditioned to expect the kind of returns realized in the S & P over last 28 months.
Re: Bullish Outlook for Canadian Upstream Companies - Feb 11
Thanks for your sage advice, Chuck.