Energy Prospectus

The Trump administration said Friday it granted a liquefied natural gas export license to the Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana, the first approval of an LNG export project after the Biden administration paused approvals a year ago.

Commonwealth LNG, which has waited longer than any other company for its permit, wants to build a 9.5M metric tons/year export plant and expects to make a final investment decision in September 2025 as a result of the license, hoping to produce first LNG in early 2029.

Two other companies, Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Energy Transfer (ET), have said they plan to move full speed ahead with their LNG export plans.
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The U.S. LNG export facilities in service today have design capacity of 17.8 Bcfpd. Exxon's Golden Pass facility should be in service Q4 2025, adding another 1.6 Bcfpd. When all of the LNG export facilities that are expected to come online 2026 - 2030 are built, total U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to close to 35 Bcfpd. This rapid demand growth is much more than the demand growth from natural gas power plants that will be built to provide the electricity for AI Data Centers.

Bottomline: Demand for U.S. natural gas is growing at least 3X faster than global demand for oil. The U.S. is never expected to be a net exporter of oil.

Cheniere’s stock has fallen 10%+ from its highs in 30 days. The Ukraine/Russia war is close to being settled. If sanctions are lifted Europe especially Germany will be taking all the Russian gas they can get, no hard feelings. LNG’s conference call on 2/20 is recommended listening to get their take on things. Trump wants cheap energy. Just saying…..

President Donald Trump wasted no time flexing his pro-fossil fuel stance, approving the first LNG export permit since Biden’s controversial pause last year and creating a new energy council to expand U.S. oil and gas production. The move is a sharp policy reversal and seeks to reinforce America’s position as the world’s top hydrocarbon producer.

Commonwealth LNG, the long-waiting recipient of this permit, can now proceed with its 9.5 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) export facility in Louisiana, targeting markets in Asia and Europe. The approval effectively ends the uncertainty caused by Biden’s freeze on new LNG export authorizations—a pause that the administration initially framed as temporary but dragged on into perpetuity.

Trump lifted that freeze the moment he stepped back into office.

Beyond LNG, Trump has reopened over 600 million acres of offshore federal waters for oil and gas development, reversing restrictions imposed during Biden’s tenure. The newly formed energy council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, is set to drive policy aimed at maximizing domestic energy output.

Industry players are already moving fast. Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Energy Transfer have signaled plans to accelerate their LNG export projects, while offshore drillers are eyeing fresh opportunities in newly opened federal waters.

Trump’s latest moves are sure to inflame environmental opposition, but legal hurdles are unlikely to slow things down much. A federal judge recently blocked Biden’s LNG moratorium, ruling the pause unjustified. With regulatory roadblocks disappearing and demand for U.S. LNG soaring—especially in Europe, which remains eager to replace Russian gas—the American LNG boom is back in full swing.

The question now isn’t whether U.S. energy dominance will continue, but just how much Trump is willing to push the envelope. And if history is any guide, he won’t be playing it safe.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com