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U.S. Natural Gas price nearing $4.00 TODAY - Feb 18

Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2025 2:26 pm
by dan_s
Trading Economics:
"US natural gas NYMEX front month contract (MAR25) rose above $3.98/MMBtu on Tuesday, approaching a four-week high and rebounding from earlier losses, as extreme cold in certain areas has caused freeze-offs, temporarily freezing oil and gas wells and reducing daily output. This has led to a slight decline in production to a three-week low. Additionally, record-high natural gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants are increasing demand. Meanwhile, forecasts suggest milder weather and lower heating demand in the coming weeks."

JUN25 contract is trading at $4.12 at the time of this post.

WHY:
Millions across U.S. face 'record-breaking cold' as another polar vortex sends temperatures plunging. Here's the latest forecast.

Another arctic blast has sent temperatures plummeting across the United States, bringing “life-threatening” wind chills and dangerous cold to millions of Americans while yet another winter storm will unleash heavy snow across a wide swath of the country.

The latest brutal cold snap is again courtesy of the polar vortex — a large area of cold air that spins over the North Pole — dropping some 3,000 miles south into the U.S. for the 10th time this winter.

The National Weather Service has issued extreme cold warnings to more than 32 million people in 11 states from the Canadian border to Texas, with “widespread, record-breaking cold likely.”

Very likely. Wind chills between 30 and 60 degrees below zero are forecast for the upper Midwest and portions of the central Plains, according to the weather service.

Such cold wind chills “may quickly lead to frostbite and hypothermia in unprotected humans, pets and livestock,” the weather service warned. “Dress in layers including a hat, face mask and gloves if you must go outside.”

Even without factoring in the wind, temperatures of up to 40 degrees below normal are expected for much of the country.

Re: U.S. Natural Gas price nearing $4.00 TODAY - Feb 18

Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2025 2:34 pm
by dan_s
Celsius Energy is now forecasting that for the four weeks ending March 7th, 667 Bcf of gas will be drawn from U.S. storage. Those four draws will be 248 Bcf above the 5-year average, pushing storage down to 1,630 Bcf, which is 315 Bcf below the 5-year for March 7th.

Since LNG exports should remain 20 to 25 Bcf per week higher than a year ago, draws from storage should continue into early April unless the weather in the eastern U.S. turns very mild after March 7th.

Re: U.S. Natural Gas price nearing $4.00 TODAY - Feb 18

Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2025 2:53 pm
by dan_s
The NYMEX strip for 2026 (JAN26 to DEC26) average price at the time of this post was $4.249/MMBTU. I sure hope our Gassers are wise enough to layer on some hedges that would lock in record profits for 2026.