Sweet 16 Update - Feb 23
Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2025 9:47 am
During the week ending February 21st the Sweet 16 lost 2.16% and is now up 2.29% YTD.
The S&P 500 Index lost 1.81% and is now up 2.24%.
It was a good week until Friday's selloff due to the WTI oil MAR25 futures contract declining $2.08/bbl. The front month NGas contract gained $0.08, closing at $4.23/MMBtu. The natural gas draw from storage for the week ending February 21st is expected to be 272 Bcf, which would be 130 Bcf larger than the 5-year average for the 3rd week in February. Thanks to increasing LNG exports, I am now expecting the deficit to the 5-year average amount of gas in storage to keep increasing through at least mid-April.
All of my forecasts are being updated for changing oil & gas prices: I have lowered the oil price by $2.50/bbl in Q1 thru Q3 2025 in forecast models and I have increased HH natural gas prices to $3.50 in Q1, $3.75 in Q2, $4.25 in Q3 and $4.50 in Q4. Higher natural gas prices offset the slightly lower oil prices for all of the Sweet 16.
Seven companies have released Q4 results: AR, DVN, EQT, MGY, MTDR, NOG, SM
Those forecast models have been updated on the EPG website. You can find my updates for each one of them in previous posts. AR and EQT have the most exposure to rising natural gas and NGL prices. All of the Sweet 16 produce a lot of natural gas in NGLs.
Despite solid Q4 results and recent increases in their dividends, NOG and SM are down over 11% YTD. SM is now trading at a 132% discount to my current valuation of $80/share. It is also #2 in Harry's ranking of 84 companies based on net present value per share.
Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI), which is up 56% YTD is Harry's #1 rated stock. It was his Top Pick for 2025.
Sweet 16 Companies announcing Q4 results this week are:
Feb. 24 > CIVI, CTRA, FANG,
Feb. 25 > PR, RRC
Feb. 26 > CRGY, OVV
Feb. 27 > EOG, VRN
My top priority is updating the forecast/valuation models for all 38 of the companies in our three model portfolios as soon as I can after they release Q4 results and updated guidance for 2025. They are all generating a lot of operating cash flow and most of them pay dividends.
The S&P 500 Index lost 1.81% and is now up 2.24%.
It was a good week until Friday's selloff due to the WTI oil MAR25 futures contract declining $2.08/bbl. The front month NGas contract gained $0.08, closing at $4.23/MMBtu. The natural gas draw from storage for the week ending February 21st is expected to be 272 Bcf, which would be 130 Bcf larger than the 5-year average for the 3rd week in February. Thanks to increasing LNG exports, I am now expecting the deficit to the 5-year average amount of gas in storage to keep increasing through at least mid-April.
All of my forecasts are being updated for changing oil & gas prices: I have lowered the oil price by $2.50/bbl in Q1 thru Q3 2025 in forecast models and I have increased HH natural gas prices to $3.50 in Q1, $3.75 in Q2, $4.25 in Q3 and $4.50 in Q4. Higher natural gas prices offset the slightly lower oil prices for all of the Sweet 16.
Seven companies have released Q4 results: AR, DVN, EQT, MGY, MTDR, NOG, SM
Those forecast models have been updated on the EPG website. You can find my updates for each one of them in previous posts. AR and EQT have the most exposure to rising natural gas and NGL prices. All of the Sweet 16 produce a lot of natural gas in NGLs.
Despite solid Q4 results and recent increases in their dividends, NOG and SM are down over 11% YTD. SM is now trading at a 132% discount to my current valuation of $80/share. It is also #2 in Harry's ranking of 84 companies based on net present value per share.
Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI), which is up 56% YTD is Harry's #1 rated stock. It was his Top Pick for 2025.
Sweet 16 Companies announcing Q4 results this week are:
Feb. 24 > CIVI, CTRA, FANG,
Feb. 25 > PR, RRC
Feb. 26 > CRGY, OVV
Feb. 27 > EOG, VRN
My top priority is updating the forecast/valuation models for all 38 of the companies in our three model portfolios as soon as I can after they release Q4 results and updated guidance for 2025. They are all generating a lot of operating cash flow and most of them pay dividends.