Permian Resources (PR) Valuation Update - Feb 26
Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2025 12:27 pm
At the time of this post PR was trading at $14.14
6 of the 16 analysts that cover PR have submitted updated price targets to TipRanks since the Company announced Q4 results and detailed guidance for 2025. 5 of the 6 raised their price targets by $1/share. The fresh price targets range from $18 to $23 with an update average of $20.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model. My current valuation increases by $0.75 to $25.00 per share, which is 5X annualized operating CFPS for 2024 to 2026. I believe that 5X CFPS is a conservative valuation multiple for a Company of this size and quality.
My 2025 forecast is based on the mid-point of their fresh production guidance of 360,000 to 380,000 (~172,500 bpd of crude oil). < Since I have been following PR the Company's actual production has exceeded their guidance every quarter; most of the quarters it has exceeded the high end of their guidance.
In my opinion, if one of the Majors wants to make a meaningful acquisition in the Permian Basin, PR is on their Target List.
6 of the 16 analysts that cover PR have submitted updated price targets to TipRanks since the Company announced Q4 results and detailed guidance for 2025. 5 of the 6 raised their price targets by $1/share. The fresh price targets range from $18 to $23 with an update average of $20.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model. My current valuation increases by $0.75 to $25.00 per share, which is 5X annualized operating CFPS for 2024 to 2026. I believe that 5X CFPS is a conservative valuation multiple for a Company of this size and quality.
My 2025 forecast is based on the mid-point of their fresh production guidance of 360,000 to 380,000 (~172,500 bpd of crude oil). < Since I have been following PR the Company's actual production has exceeded their guidance every quarter; most of the quarters it has exceeded the high end of their guidance.
In my opinion, if one of the Majors wants to make a meaningful acquisition in the Permian Basin, PR is on their Target List.