NGas in Storage as end of winter heating season comes to an end
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 9:55 am
Note from GelsiusEnergy
> Natural Gas Prices Drop in April’s Front-Month (NYMEX APR25 contract) Debut After Bullish, But Underachieving,
> EIA Storage Withdrawal; Inventories Likely to Finish Season With 5-Year High Withdrawal & Face Uphill Battle to Refill Inventories This Summer;
> Gas Demand to Rise Slightly Today Before More Substantial Jump This Weekend as Colder Air Returns to the Northeast.
Next two draws from storage:
> 105 Bcf draw for the week ending February 28 will push storage 254 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of the largest 2 months of draws EVER.
> 84 Bcf draw for the week ending March 7 would be 32 Bcf larger than the 5-year average for the first week of March. Storage 286 Bcf below the 5-year average.
MY WAG: Combined draws for March 8-31 should push storage more than 300 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of Q1. As long as LNG exports remain over 15 Bcf per day, the storage builds in Q2 should be less than the 5-year average. < This means the storage deficit to the 5-year average GROW. Refilling storage before the next winter heating season arrives in November, 2025 will be difficult if not impossible.
> Natural Gas Prices Drop in April’s Front-Month (NYMEX APR25 contract) Debut After Bullish, But Underachieving,
> EIA Storage Withdrawal; Inventories Likely to Finish Season With 5-Year High Withdrawal & Face Uphill Battle to Refill Inventories This Summer;
> Gas Demand to Rise Slightly Today Before More Substantial Jump This Weekend as Colder Air Returns to the Northeast.
Next two draws from storage:
> 105 Bcf draw for the week ending February 28 will push storage 254 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of the largest 2 months of draws EVER.
> 84 Bcf draw for the week ending March 7 would be 32 Bcf larger than the 5-year average for the first week of March. Storage 286 Bcf below the 5-year average.
MY WAG: Combined draws for March 8-31 should push storage more than 300 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of Q1. As long as LNG exports remain over 15 Bcf per day, the storage builds in Q2 should be less than the 5-year average. < This means the storage deficit to the 5-year average GROW. Refilling storage before the next winter heating season arrives in November, 2025 will be difficult if not impossible.