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Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - April 4

Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 6:48 pm
by dan_s
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/matador-resources-company-announces-sale-103000544.html

Matador finished the first quarter of 2025 in the strongest financial position in its history with approximately $1.8 billion in liquidity.

Re: Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - April 4

Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2025 5:06 am
by Petroleum economist
I agree with Dan that Matador is in good financial health

Reinforcement of balance sheet
Matador repaid in Q1 $180 million of its borrowings under its credit facility.
As per my ranking model the Q1 FCF from operations was $ 166 M. On top of this Matador received $ 30 M from the sale of its Eagleford assets and paid a quarterly dividend of $ 0.3125 which is equivalent to $ 49 M. The above means that my model assumes that 166+30-49 = $ 147 M flowed towards the balance sheet.

I am happy with the model being so close as does not include stock changes, modifications in delta energy prices and costs based on 2024 rates.
The $ 180 M enabled Matador to reduce the late 2024 long-term debt of $ 3.125 M to below $ 3.0 B. The long-term debt had run up to $ 3.1 B in late 2024 due to the $ 1.9 B Meredev acquisition in September

The equity ratio (=equity/balance sheet total) at the end of Q1 should have improved from 51.2% (late 2024) to a good 52.9%

Robustness to low oil prices
With all the ongoing tariff nonsense, WTI oil prices have falling to $ 60/bbl and below.
At oil prices of $ 60/bbl Matador stays well FCF positive ($ 880-920 M/year) and can continue with its debt repayment, development program and shareholder returns.

Future shareholder returns
My model indicates that Matador with WTI =$ 60/bbl in 2026 can increase its quarterly dividend to $ 0.75, which is combined with the current share price is a yield of > 8%.