Oil and Gas prices - April 11

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
WTI Oil Price
WTI crude oil futures rose 2.4% to settle at $61.50 per barrel on Friday, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled that the U.S. may move to block Iran’s oil exports in efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. < If so, this is SIGNIFICANT.
> Still, concerns over the US-China trade dispute continued to weigh on demand expectations. China announced a sharp tariff hike on U.S. goods to 125%, while the White House confirmed total U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports now stand at 145%.
> In response, the U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its global oil demand forecast, warning that prolonged trade tensions could dampen consumption.
> Meanwhile, OPEC+ surprised markets by accelerating plans to boost output, raising fears of oversupply.
> With both demand and supply risks in play, oil prices remain on shaky ground.
> For the week, WTI crude slipped 1.26%, following a 10.6% drop in the prior period to the lowest level since April 2021.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
US natural gas futures fell to $3.55/MMBtu, hit by a larger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for mild weather and weaker demand.
> The EIA reported a 57 bcf storage injection last week, well above the five-year average of 17 bcf. < The storage report for the week ending April 11 is going to show a build of ~18 Bcf, 35 Bcf below the 5-year average per Celsius Energy's most recent updated forecast.
> Mild temperatures kept demand low, helping utilities stockpile gas unusually early for this time of year.
> Storage additions may have even occurred in March — something that’s only happened once before.
> Looking ahead, forecasts show near-normal temperatures through April 25.
> Meanwhile, LNG exports remain strong, with flows hitting 16.1 bcfd so far in April.
> On the other hand, gas output is slightly down from record levels.
> Broader energy markets are also under pressure from ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s shifting tariff policy, which is raising concerns about global growth.