Energy Prospectus

Saudi Arabia is signaling a major policy shift within OPEC+, warning fellow oil-producing nations that continued overproduction could trigger even more aggressive supply increases, Reuters reported Sunday, citing sources familiar with internal discussions.

At a meeting on Saturday, Saudi officials led the group in approving a significant production boost of 411,000 barrels a day for June -- marking the second consecutive month of sizable hikes. The move was widely seen as a response to countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have been exceeding their assigned output limits.

Delegates say Riyadh is now contemplating releasing the rest of the 2.2 million barrels a day that had previously been held back by the group, doing so in similarly large tranches if members fail to adhere to their quotas.

These deliberations, which were shared on condition of anonymity due to their confidential nature, suggest a growing willingness by Saudi Arabia to abandon years of price-supportive strategy in favor of enforcing compliance.

This potential departure from OPEC+’s traditional playbook comes at a precarious time for oil markets, which are already under pressure from global economic uncertainty and trade tensions, including fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Brent crude (CO1:COM) prices in London have fallen to near $60 per barrel—a four-year low.

Originally, OPEC+ had planned to gradually reintroduce the 2.2 million barrels per day of idle production over a span of nearly two years, stretching into late 2026. But the group has now fast-tracked nearly half of that output in just a matter of months, with signals pointing to a possible acceleration of the rest if quota violations persist.
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Just maybe Saudi Arabia knows that a lot of Iran's oil will soon be off the market.

In other news: "Trump will only accept "total dismantlement" of Iran's nuclear program"

President Trump said the goal of the negotiations with Iran is to achieve "full dismantlement" of Tehran's nuclear program.

Why it matters: Trump's remarks in an "Meet the Press" interview aired Sunday are the first time he's publicly announced the ambitious goal since nuclear talks began with Iran a month ago.

GOP senators, evangelical leaders and other Trump supporters have called on the president in recent days to make his position clear regarding Iran's nuclear program.

What they're saying: "Total dismantlement. Yes, that is all I would accept," Trump told "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker.

"I want Iran to be really successful, really great, really fantastic. The only thing they can't have is a nuclear weapon. If they want to be successful, that's okay. I want them to be so successful," Trump said.
"I just don't want them to have a nuclear weapon because the world will be destroyed," he added.
Trump said he is open to hearing arguments in favor of Iran having a civilian nuclear program, which is something that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said he supports.
"There's a pathway to a civil, peaceful nuclear program if they want one," Rubio said last month on the "Honestly with Bari Weiss" podcast.
Between the lines: Trump's statement settles an internal debate within the administration about what the goal of the talks with Iran should be.

The more hawkish voices in the administration, backed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, say the U.S. must demand the full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program and do it by military force if Iran refuses to accept it.

The other camp within the administration thinks Iran will not accept full dismantlement of its nuclear program and has suggested the U.S. agree to some uranium enrichment in order to get a deal and avoid a military strike that could lead to a war with Iran.

State of play: Iran said several times in public — and made it clear in private — during the U.S. negotiations that it will not accept full dismantlement of its nuclear program.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet later this week for the fourth round of nuclear talks.

Trump's statement will likely have a significant influence on the next round of negotiations.

Watch 5 minute video here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/very-limited-options-if-iran-obtains-nuclear-weapons-national-security-expert/vi-AA1E7zZv?t=24

My Take: The U.S. and all of Western Europe should not and Israel CANNOT allow Iran to have even a chance of getting weapons grade uranium or ballistic missiles.