Coterra Energy (CTRA) Valuation Update - May 6

[dan_s]

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Coterra for their strong Q1 results and updated guidance for 2025.

At the time of this post, CTRA was trading at $23.00. My valuation is now slightly lower (by $0.50) to $36.00 per share. I increased operating expenses and adjusted the production mix. I do think they will complete more gas wells in Appalachia this year than the original forecast. Keep in mind that natural gas prices are set by regional supply/demand fundamentals. AI data centers will significantly increase the demand for Appalachia natural gas (Marcellus and Utica shale gas). < AR, EQT and RRC will also benefit from higher gas prices in the Northeast.

I consider Coterra to be a "Gasser". Its production mix is approximately 63% natural gas, 16% NGLs and 21% crude oil.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 20 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for CTRA. The average price target among the analysts is $34.50." The 20 price targets range from $28 to $40.

Coterra regularly exceeds their production guidance.