Global Oil Market is tighter than the current Paradigm

[dan_s]

Mexican state oil company Pemex completed drilling of only 17 wells during the
first quarter of 2025, the lowest figure for a similar period in three
decades, according to the company's quarterly financial report, Mexico
Business News reported.

The state oil company finished 12 development wells and five exploratory wells
between January and March, matching the number completed in 1Q95. This marks a
steep drop from 41 wells in 1Q24 and 68 in 1Q20, which was the highest
quarterly total during the previous presidential administration.

This drilling decline coincides with Pemex facing significant delays in
supplier payments and a broader contraction in operational capacity. Industry
representatives in Mexico's southeastern oil-producing regions have publicly
highlighted that overdue payments have disrupted drilling operations and
service provision.

The reduction in well completions has occurred alongside a significant
decrease in liquid hydrocarbon output. Production of crude oil and condensates
fell by 11.3% year on year in 1Q25, dropping by over 200mn barrels per day.
Average output for the period stood at 1.615mn bpd, the lowest reported since
1979.

In its financial disclosure, Pemex attributed the production decline to
several factors, including natural depletion of mature fields, delays in
completing technically complex wells, reduced initial yields in the Xanab
field, equipment failures in Ayatsil, and delays in offshore infrastructure.
The company also cited the suspension of critical services in the Yaxché field
and adverse offshore weather conditions.

[dan_s]

From new IEA Oil Market Report:

"Global oil stocks (inventories) rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7,671 million barrels (mb) remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb). Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April."

Keep in mind that demand for oil-based products ALWAYS increases in June through August.