Energy Prospectus

Introduction
With increasing future gas prices, it can be attractive to add US gas producers to your portfolio. Amongst the US gas producers you can select from are Antero Resources, Comstock resources, CNX Resources, Coterra, EQT, Expand Energy, Gulfport Energy, PHX Minerals, Range Resources, and other small operators.

in order to demonstrate that there are major differences between US gas producers I have picked for comparison from my 84-company ranking system the highest-ranking producer (CNX – 22nd) and the lowest one (Comstock – 77th). The remaining US gas producers fall in the range between CNX and Comstock.

Summary
There are major differences between US gas producers. CNX and Comstock sit at the extremes. I prefer CNX Resources over Comstock Resources on all aspects of reserves, fluid composition, production, balance sheet, realized gas prices, unit costs, profitability, PE, and shareholder returns.

Either CNX is underpriced or Comstock is overpriced. Other US gas producers are sitting in between. Canadian gas producers can be a good alternative.

Area of operation
Comstock operates in the Haynesville reservoir in Texas and Louisiana. CNX operates in the Appalachian basin in the NE of the USA.

Market value and share prices
Market value wise both Comstock and CNX both are mid-size companies. Comstock has a market value of $ 6.9 B, and CNX of $ 4.9 B. The Comstock market capitalization is about 40% larger than that of CNX
The Comstock share price has increased with a staggering 168.4% since early 2024 from $ 8.85 to $ 23.75. The CNX share price grew with a much more modest 58.1% from $ 20.00 to $ 31.61.

The CNX share price in 2025 seems to have more room for growth than Comstock.

Proven reserves and reserves lifetime
Comstock reported late 2022 proven reserves of 6.7 tcf. Since late 2022 Comstock has de-booked 2.9 tcf of the proven reserves mostly due to lower gas prices. In 2024 Comstock is reporting only 3.7 tcf of proven reserves. Comstock has indicated that if it would use Nymex gas prices rather than SEC guidelines for gas prices, then the proven reserves would jump back to 7.0 tcf. Using the 3.7- 7.0 tcf range, the Comstock reserves are equivalent to 7.4-13.8 years of 2025 production at 1,400 MM scfe/d.

CNX in late 2022 had 9.9 tcf of proven reserves. Similar to Comstock CNX de-booked reserves due to low gas prices but the reduction of 0.75 tcf was far lower. As of late 2024 CNX had proven reserves of 8.6 tcf of proven reserves. Using the 8.6-9.2 tcf range, CNX reserves are equivalent to 14.3-16.5 years of 2025 production at 1,630 MM scfe/d.

Conclusion: CNX has more reserves with a longer production life than Comstock.

Fluid composition
Comstock reserves are 100% gas. There is no reported NGL or oil content.
CNX reserves are 89% gas and 11% NGL. There is no oil.

Conclusion: The CNX fluids contain more valuable NGL components than Comstock fluids.

Balance sheet
Comstock in Q1 2025 had a long-term debt of $ 3.05 B. The long-term debt of CNX in Q1 was $ 2.35 B. Comstock had an equity of $ 2.8 B, CNX of $ 3.8 B.
The Comstock equity ratio (=equity/balance sheet total) was a low 37.5%. The CNX equity ratio was also not good but higher at 41.7%.
The equity per share of Comstock ($ 7.84) is 31% of the share price($ 23.75). The equip per share of CNX ($ 25.52) is 81% of the share price ($ 31.75).

Conclusion: CNX has a much stronger balance sheet than Comstock with less debt, more equity and better equity ratios.

2025 realized gas prices and unit costs
Comstock saw in Q1 a realized gas prices (excluding hedges) of $ 3.58/MM Btu. The CNX realized gas price was slightly higher at $ 3.66/MM btu.
The 2025 Comstock unit costs (inclusive depreciation, interest, and overheads) are $ 2.88/MM Btu. Those of CNX are 14% lower at $ 2.44/MM Btu.

Conclusions: CNX has a higher realized gas prices and lower unit costs than Comstock.

2025 eps and PE
In Q1 2025 Comstock reported an adjusted profit of $ 58 M on a production of 1,279 MM scfe/d. The adjusted Q1 profit of CNX was double at $ 116 M on a production of 1,642 MM scfe/d. CNX earned 56% more per unit of production than Comstock.
For 2025 I am predicting a Comstock eps of $ 0.42 (PE=56.5). For CNX I expect an eps of $ 2,49 (PE=12.7).

Conclusion: CNX is a far more profitable company than Comstock.

Shareholder returns
Comstock in 2025 is not returning funds to shareholders. I am struggling to see a change in the near future due to the state of the balance sheet.
CNX does not pay dividends either, but bought back in Q1 4.2 M shares for $ 125.1 M. I can see the share buyback continuing and I expect for 2025 a shareholder returns of 5-6%.

Conclusion: CNX provides decent shareholder returns. Comstock none.

Overall conclusion
There are major differences between US gas producers. CNX and Comstock sit at the extremes. I prefer CNX Resources over Comstock Resources on all aspects of reserves, fluid composition, production, balance sheet, realized gas prices, unit cost, profitability, PE, and shareholder returns.

Either CNX is underpriced or Comstock is overpriced. Other US gas producers are sitting in between.

Note that there are multiple Canadian gas producers (e.g. Yangarra Resources (4th), Spartan Delta (5th), NuVista Energy (11th), Kiwetinohk Energy (17th), Peyto Exploration (20th)) which rank higher than CNX. The Canadian gas prices in 2025 are lagging behind the US gas prices, but I believe that they will catch up in H2 2025 and in 2026 with increasing demand (start of Canada LNG in H2 2025). The share price of Canadian gas producers will follow.

Nice analysis. My view on CRI]K is that they are significantly overvalued. I don’t follow CNX and my initial obstacle would be finding out the takeaway constraints for its gas which could limit its growth. CRK is in superior geographic location for shipments to Gulf Coast. While I am not touting CRK by any means, should gas push above a floor of $5, CRK’s profitability should show superior growth in earnings due to its high cost. The intangible value factor in CRK that is negative is the quality of management.in my view they are overpaid and after many years failed to prove their value. Sustained high gas prices may make them look like geniuses however.

I agree. CRK is currently at "Fair Value" in my opinion.
> It appears that their "Western Haynesville" has the potential to be a significant addition to their proved reserves.
> Jerry Jones' large percentage of the equity does have some impact.
> The location of CRK's is a plus. If there is a "Bidding War" for supply, Haynesville gas reserves will draw a lot of attention from the LNG exporters.
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Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts (highly respected by the Wall Street Gang) are forecasting the onset of a U.S. natural gas supercycle, driven by a combination of robust demand growth and constrained supply. In a detailed sector outlook, Bernstein projects that total U.S. gas demand will rise from approximately 120 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to about 148 bcfd by 2030. < Close to Antero Resources forecast that demand for U.S. natural will increase by 29 Bcf per day from end of 2024 to end of 2030.

The key drivers of this growth are an expected surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a sharp increase in power demand, particularly from data centers.

According to the Bernstein report, LNG exports are forecast to grow by 10 bcfd through the end of the decade, based on projects that are already sanctioned or under construction. < If Team Trump approves all of the LNG export facilities seeking approval, the increase in LNG exports could be close to 20 Bcfpd, with total export capacity near 34 Bcfpd.

The analysts see this export-driven demand as “highly certain,” emphasizing that international markets will account for the vast majority, around 80%, of the demand growth over this period.

Power demand is expected to add another 8 bcfd, continuing a linear trend observed over the past two years.

This increase is attributed primarily to data center expansion, which the report characterizes as a structurally new source of demand.

Despite ongoing coal plant retirements, Bernstein assumes that renewables will largely offset the lost generation capacity, but acknowledges that natural gas could fill some of the gap depending on renewable deployment rates. < Natural gas fired power plants will fill most of the demand for AI data centers because they MUST HAVE RELIABLE ELECTRICITY 24/7. Wind and solar are not reliable.

While demand is projected to climb steadily, supply growth appears more constrained.

Bernstein highlights that over 70% of U.S. gas supply does not interact with price due to either being associated with oil drilling or limited by infrastructure constraints. < It is the large volume of "associated gas" that has kept North American natural gas prices much lower than fair value.

In particular, production from Appalachia, the nation’s largest gas-producing region, is expected to remain flat due to pipeline limitations.

This leaves the Haynesville and Midcontinent regions as the primary sources of flexible, price-responsive supply. < This why CRK's reserves are in a good location near the Gulf Coast.

Bernstein models suggest that to balance the market, these basins will need to contribute an additional 17 bcfd by 2030. < This is a tall order.

However, current activity levels, particularly in the Haynesville, are below the necessary pace, raising concerns about the industry’s ability to respond.

The supply-demand mismatch leads Bernstein to forecast a sustained rise in gas prices.

Their model indicates a long-term equilibrium price around $5 per million cubic feet (mcf), above recent spot and forward prices.

Under more bullish assumptions, such as a shortfall in Haynesville growth, prices could exceed $8 or even $10/mcf, triggering both demand destruction and increased incentive for supply expansion.

Bernstein’s assessment calls this environment a “supercycle,” driven not by speculative hype but by underlying structural trends.

They stress that global dynamics, including rising LNG demand for power and transport in Asia, will ensure that U.S. exports continue to run at or near capacity, further tightening the domestic market.

In this context, Bernstein recommends increased exposure to gas-weighted equities, naming EQT Corp. (EQT) as their top investment idea to capture long-term value from this structural shift.