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InPlay Oil (IPO.TO and IPOOF) Update - May 31

Posted: Sat May 31, 2025 9:49 am
by dan_s
I spent several hours on May 30 (after our webinar) focusing on InPlay Oil, one of the four Canadian Upstream companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio that pays monthly dividends.

My updated profile and forecast/valuation model for InPlay has been posted to the EPG website.

I also recommend that you go to the InPlay website ( https://www.inplayoil.com/ ) and carefully review their updated Corporate Presentation. It will help you understand how SIGNIFICANT the Pembina Area Acquisition (that closed on April 7th) is to a company of this size; it more than doubles the Company's production.

InPlay's increased "Running Room" in their core area of operation and their production mix (49% light oil, 39% natural gas and 12% NGLs) puts InPlay on a path to generate close to $5.00/share of operating cash flow in 2024. InPlay's operating cash flow was $1.07/share in Q1 2025, which did not include the impact of the acquisition that closed on April 7.

InPlay's size (now close to 18,750 Boepd) and it's strong free cash flow should draw a lot more analysts' coverage after they announce Q2 results.

My current valuation of $14/share is based on 2.5 X annualized operating cash flow per share for 2024 thru 2026. If InPlay's Q2 results and their guidance for the remainder of 2025 confirms my forecast model assumptions, the valuation multiple should increase to 3X, which is still a conservative multiple for a company with this much high-quality running room.

Re: InPlay Oil (IPO.TO and IPOOF) Update - May 31

Posted: Sat May 31, 2025 5:58 pm
by cmm3rd
Thank you, Dan, for the updated Profile.

Comparing the company's presentation, page 4, to the chart at bottom of third page of the profile, it appears that the numbers $67, 80 and 89 are FAFF at the various WTI levels. Is that correct?

Also, the company presentation, page 6, chart re FAFF optionality, lists "opportunistic share repurchases" as a potential use of excess FAFF. Is there a buyback authorization (NCIB) in place, and if so, has it been used at all? Looking only at the Q1 report, I can find no evidence of an NCIB, only purchase of shares for placement into a trust, and issuance of shares in much larger amounts than those purchased as share based compensation, so that the share count goes up, not down. Could that be one reason the shares have performed so poorly over the last three years (with such poor pps performance clearly outweighing the dvd)?

Finally, their dvd yield clearly is very high, implying market perception of higher risk generally, possibility of cutting the dividend (which you indicate is unlikely at $60 WTI, despite debt level), or low level of capital return to shareholders. Would appreciate any thoughts re same.

Thanks.

Re: InPlay Oil (IPO.TO and IPOOF) Update - May 31

Posted: Sat May 31, 2025 7:11 pm
by dan_s
Page 4 shows free cash flow after capex at various oil price levels. My forecast of free cash flow is $66 to $73 million if WTI averages $65 for April 1 through December 31. That compares to total dividends of approximately $27 million for the full year. As long as WTI stays over $50/bbl, InPlay should have no problem paying their dividends of $0.09Cdn/month AND making their debt payments.

Outstanding stock is now ~28 million shares. 28 X $1.08 is $30.24Cdn million of dividends for the year. DCF is over 2X dividend coverage.

I don't anticipate any stock buybacks this year.

All of the upstream companies have commodity price risk. InPlay's production mix and oil hedges lower their oil price risk.

Take a look at Q2 in my forecast model. Even if InPlay's realized oil price declines from $92.67Cdn/bbl in Q1 to $79.29Cdn/bbl in Q2, the company will still generate a lot of free cash flow this quarter.

The Pembina Acquistion that closed on April 7 is SIGNIFICANTLY ACCRETIVE to free cash flow this year, which you can see on row 44 of the forecast model.

When small-caps make acquisitions as significant as the Pembina Acquistion that closed April 7, the analysts that cover it are going to be conservative on their price target adjustments until they see one or two quarters of combined results. BTW the two most recent price target updates are $13Cdn and $15Cdn from Canaccord Genuity and Noble Research, which compares to my current valuation of $14Cdn.