As expected, OPEC+ V8 decided to increase production ceiling by another 411,000 bpd in July. The actual impact on physical supply will be much less as several of the cartel members getting increased quotas have been producing above their quotas already.
Next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for July 6 to decide August's production level.
Unless Saudi Arabia increases exports, this won't have much impact on global supply.
See my previous post: U.S. and other non-OPEC+ production growth has slowed and will likely go on decline in Q4 2025.
Plus, U.S. and OECD petroleum inventories remain well below normal for this time of year.
The WTI oil price is down because of the uncertainty from the Tariff War. The global oil market is not over-supplied.
If "Maximum Pressure" on Iran to shut down their nuclear enrichment program turns into significantly lowering Iran's ability to export oil, the global oil market will need a lot more oil from Saudi Arabia.
OPEC+ will increase production quotas by 411,000 bpd in July
OPEC+ will increase production quotas by 411,000 bpd in July
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group