EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - June 11

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 6, 2025

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 6, 2025, which was 228 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable capacity last week. < Refineries, which are the "Consumers of Crude Oil", need to ramp up to over 95% of operational capacity to meet rising demand for transportation fuels. This is why crude oil inventories normally decline in June, July & August.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased by 97 thousand barrels per day last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. < Refineries need heavy oil from Canada to keep up with diesel demand. Diesel cannot be made from the ultra-light oil coming from the shale wells. The U.S. is exporting a lot of the shale oil to refineries in Europe.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 170 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 13.3% less than the same four-week period last year. < ~90% of the oil we are getting from Canada is NOT SUBJECT TO TARIFFS.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 914 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 104 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 432.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels from last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 17% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 4 million barrels from last week and are 6% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 2.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.5 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.9% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Trading Economic:
WTI crude oil futures rose above $66 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest in ten weeks, lifted by optimism over US-China trade talks and renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
> Donald Trump declared the China trade deal “done,” pending final sign-off with President Xi.
> Meanwhile, Trump voiced doubts over reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, and Tehran threatened to strike US bases if talks fail. < Where this is heading will take a lot of Iran's oil exports off the market.
> On the supply side, OPEC+ is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it continues unwinding cuts. < This is misleading. OPEC+ is increasing quotas, not production.
> However, a drawdown in US crude inventories, with EIA data showing a 3.644 million barrel drop last week, more than market expectations of a 2.5 million.

If the US does get a favorable trade deal done with China, FEAR of the Tariff War will fade and WTI will move quickly over $70/bbl. If Israel, supported by the U.S., attacks Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, WTI will spike to over $75/bbl. Today we are seeing short covering rally in the NYMEX futures market.