Kolibri Global – Q2 results
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:20 am
Kolibri is a small company producing oil and gas from the shallow zones of the Tishomingo Field in Central Oklahoma. The deeper zones are operated by Exxon.
Summary
Q2 results were slightly below expectation. Q2 production was in line with expectations. Kolibri has ample reserves and future production can triple. The balance sheet is strong. Q2 profit was slightly below expectation due to lowish oil and NGL prices. The PE is medium/low. Shareholder returns in 2025 are limited, but thereafter can reach high levels.
In my 82 oil and gas companies ranking, Kolibri sit at the top the rankings (1st).
Production
• Kolibri production has grown with 179% from 1.4 K BoE/d (2019) to 3.5 K BoE/d (2024).
• Q2 production (3,220 BoE/d) was below Q1 (4.077 K BoE/d) as no new wells were brought on stream in Q2 and 540 BoE/d was closed in to enable the drilling of the four nearby Lovina wells.
• Q2 production was below my expectation (3.315 BoE/d) as I had catered for only 370 BoE/d closed in production and not for 540 BoE/d. Without this error Q2 production would have exceeded my expectation, indicating that the decline rates from wells are more benign than what I had anticipated. I have recalibrated my model.
• Kolibri drilled in Q2 four Lovina wells and a Forguson well.
• The Lovina wells did not contribute to Q2 production. The wells were brought on line in early Q3 at initial rates of 322-643 BoE/d. The production rates are well below the earlier Alicia Renee wells. The oil cut however was a high 80-82%, The wells are still cleaning up and the production rates may increase.
• A Forguson well was drilled to test the economics of the Caney formation in the untested eastern area. This well will also come onstream in Q3.
• Two Barnes wells will be spudded in Q3, but I do not expect any production from these wells until well into Q4.
• For Q3 I expect a production of 4.8 K BoE/d, with production in Q4 picking up to 6.4 K BoE/d. Kolibri did not provide an outlook.
• Kolibri did not provide a new 2025 outlook. The previous outlook was 4.5-5.1 K BoE/d. I expect a 2025 production of 4.6 K BoE/d. If the Lovina wells clean up this can be higher.
• High reserves enable Kolibri to double/triple its production to levels of 6.8 K BoE/d in 2029 and to 9-10 K BoE/d thereafter. This based on drilling each year two pads with four wells each. With more wells per year production can go higher
• If more wells are to be drilled per year (twelve or sixteen) , then production will be higher. The reserves are more than sufficient for such a scenario. I will keep this as an upside.
• Q2 fluids were 66% oil, 19% NGL and 15% gas. Oil content can go up with a higher oil content in the Lovina wells.
Balance sheet
• The balance sheet is very healthy.
• The equity ratio (equity/balance sheet total) fell from 76.7% (Q1) to 75.5% (Q2). The equity ratio still is very high.
• Long-term debt increased from C$ 27.3 M (Q1) to C$ 29.7 M (Q2), mainly due to the $ 16.9 M of capex spend in Q2 on the Lovina and Ferguson wells.
• Q2 debt/EBITDA ratio on an annual basis was a good 0.9. With more production in H2 the ratio can reduce to an excellent 0.3-0.4 by the end of 2025.
• The balance sheet is healthy allows generous shareholder return.
Profitability
• Kolibri is a very profitable company.
• Q2 eps ($ 0.07) excluding non-cash hedging was lower than Q1 ($ 0.16), mainly due to lower oil, NGL and gas prices.
• The eps was just below l to my expectation ($ 0.08) as realized oil prices ($ 62.45/bbl) and NGL prices ($ 17.59/bbl) were lower than I had anticipated. Realized gas prices ($ 3.09/MM Btu) were higher. Also fall in the oil cut from 59.8% (Q1) to 56.7% (Q2) did not help.
• Operational costs were as expected.
• With WTI=$ 65/bbl, I expect for 2025 an eps of $ 0.65 (PE = medium 9.3).
• After 2025 the eps can increase to $ 1.19 in 2029. PE is a low 5.1.
• Kolibri profits are robust under low oil prices
Shareholder returns
• The balance sheet allows shareholder returns, although in H1 2025 the FCF for this is lacking for this
• Kolibri bought back shares for $ 130 K in Q1 and for $ 1.3 M in Q2.
• With a lower capex and more FCF I expect share buybacks in H2 to increase to $ 2-3 M/quarter for a total 2025 return of 3.5%.
• In 2026 returns can increase to 5%, to increase to levels to 11-13% in 2029.
Conclusions
Q2 results were slightly below expectation. Q2 production was in line with expectations. Kolibri has ample reserves and future production can triple. The balance sheet is strong. Q2 profit was slightly below expectation due to lower energy prices. The PE is medium/low. Shareholder returns in 2025 are limited, but thereafter can reach high levels.
In my 82 oil and gas companies ranking, Kolibri sit at the top the rankings (1st).
NOTE: ABOVE IS COMPILED BASED ON THE SEC FILING ONLY. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE Q2 FINANCIALS, MDA OR INVESTOR PRESENTATION. I WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY
Summary
Q2 results were slightly below expectation. Q2 production was in line with expectations. Kolibri has ample reserves and future production can triple. The balance sheet is strong. Q2 profit was slightly below expectation due to lowish oil and NGL prices. The PE is medium/low. Shareholder returns in 2025 are limited, but thereafter can reach high levels.
In my 82 oil and gas companies ranking, Kolibri sit at the top the rankings (1st).
Production
• Kolibri production has grown with 179% from 1.4 K BoE/d (2019) to 3.5 K BoE/d (2024).
• Q2 production (3,220 BoE/d) was below Q1 (4.077 K BoE/d) as no new wells were brought on stream in Q2 and 540 BoE/d was closed in to enable the drilling of the four nearby Lovina wells.
• Q2 production was below my expectation (3.315 BoE/d) as I had catered for only 370 BoE/d closed in production and not for 540 BoE/d. Without this error Q2 production would have exceeded my expectation, indicating that the decline rates from wells are more benign than what I had anticipated. I have recalibrated my model.
• Kolibri drilled in Q2 four Lovina wells and a Forguson well.
• The Lovina wells did not contribute to Q2 production. The wells were brought on line in early Q3 at initial rates of 322-643 BoE/d. The production rates are well below the earlier Alicia Renee wells. The oil cut however was a high 80-82%, The wells are still cleaning up and the production rates may increase.
• A Forguson well was drilled to test the economics of the Caney formation in the untested eastern area. This well will also come onstream in Q3.
• Two Barnes wells will be spudded in Q3, but I do not expect any production from these wells until well into Q4.
• For Q3 I expect a production of 4.8 K BoE/d, with production in Q4 picking up to 6.4 K BoE/d. Kolibri did not provide an outlook.
• Kolibri did not provide a new 2025 outlook. The previous outlook was 4.5-5.1 K BoE/d. I expect a 2025 production of 4.6 K BoE/d. If the Lovina wells clean up this can be higher.
• High reserves enable Kolibri to double/triple its production to levels of 6.8 K BoE/d in 2029 and to 9-10 K BoE/d thereafter. This based on drilling each year two pads with four wells each. With more wells per year production can go higher
• If more wells are to be drilled per year (twelve or sixteen) , then production will be higher. The reserves are more than sufficient for such a scenario. I will keep this as an upside.
- Kolibri Production.jpg (62.54 KiB) Viewed 50 times
Balance sheet
• The balance sheet is very healthy.
• The equity ratio (equity/balance sheet total) fell from 76.7% (Q1) to 75.5% (Q2). The equity ratio still is very high.
• Long-term debt increased from C$ 27.3 M (Q1) to C$ 29.7 M (Q2), mainly due to the $ 16.9 M of capex spend in Q2 on the Lovina and Ferguson wells.
• Q2 debt/EBITDA ratio on an annual basis was a good 0.9. With more production in H2 the ratio can reduce to an excellent 0.3-0.4 by the end of 2025.
• The balance sheet is healthy allows generous shareholder return.
Profitability
• Kolibri is a very profitable company.
• Q2 eps ($ 0.07) excluding non-cash hedging was lower than Q1 ($ 0.16), mainly due to lower oil, NGL and gas prices.
• The eps was just below l to my expectation ($ 0.08) as realized oil prices ($ 62.45/bbl) and NGL prices ($ 17.59/bbl) were lower than I had anticipated. Realized gas prices ($ 3.09/MM Btu) were higher. Also fall in the oil cut from 59.8% (Q1) to 56.7% (Q2) did not help.
• Operational costs were as expected.
• With WTI=$ 65/bbl, I expect for 2025 an eps of $ 0.65 (PE = medium 9.3).
• After 2025 the eps can increase to $ 1.19 in 2029. PE is a low 5.1.
- Kolibri Profit.jpg (52.48 KiB) Viewed 50 times
Shareholder returns
• The balance sheet allows shareholder returns, although in H1 2025 the FCF for this is lacking for this
• Kolibri bought back shares for $ 130 K in Q1 and for $ 1.3 M in Q2.
• With a lower capex and more FCF I expect share buybacks in H2 to increase to $ 2-3 M/quarter for a total 2025 return of 3.5%.
• In 2026 returns can increase to 5%, to increase to levels to 11-13% in 2029.
- Kolibri returns.jpg (30.95 KiB) Viewed 50 times
Q2 results were slightly below expectation. Q2 production was in line with expectations. Kolibri has ample reserves and future production can triple. The balance sheet is strong. Q2 profit was slightly below expectation due to lower energy prices. The PE is medium/low. Shareholder returns in 2025 are limited, but thereafter can reach high levels.
In my 82 oil and gas companies ranking, Kolibri sit at the top the rankings (1st).
NOTE: ABOVE IS COMPILED BASED ON THE SEC FILING ONLY. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE Q2 FINANCIALS, MDA OR INVESTOR PRESENTATION. I WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY