Goldman Sachs says oil to $130 in 2013

[dan_s]

Rising tensions between Israel and Iran, over Tehran’s nuclear development programme, could drive oil prices over $130 a barrel next year says Goldman Sachs’s chief economist in Moscow at a time when the consensus forecast is for a price decline to $80-$90 because of slowing global growth and the euro crisis.

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/1 ... over-iran/

Here is what I think if no military strike against Iran:
> Oil flops around $90 through Q1 of 2013
> Oil pulls back to $80 next summer on seasonal weakness in demand - just like the last two summers
> Oil runs up to $100 next fall on seasonal increase in demand - just like the last two years.
> QE3 will continue to weaken the dollar, causing gold and oil prices to move higher

If we see stronger economic growth the oil price will move higher.
If shooting starts with Iran, oil will spike to over $150. It could go higher if several tankers are sunk or if war spreads across the region.