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Whiting Pet
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:09 pm
by par_putt
Whiting Petroleum's Q3 EPS Miss But Beats on Revenues, Shares Flat After Hours 10/24 03:08 PM
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04:08 PM EDT, 10/24/2012 (MidnightTrader) -- Whiting Petroleum (WLL:$43.68,00$-0.77,00-1.73%) today reported Q3 earnings of $0.73 per share, below the Capital IQ consensus of $0.76. However, the company reported revenues of $530.5 mln, exceeding the analysts' estimate of $515.27 mln.
Q3 production totaled 7.60 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), of which 86% were crude oil/natural gas liquids. This quarter production total equates to a daily average production rate of 82,615 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), representing a 17% increase over the average daily rate of 70,675 BOE per day in the comparable quarter last year.
Shares are flat in the after-hours session at $43.69, and are in a 52-week range of $35.68 - $63.97.
Price: 43.69, Change: 0, Percent Change: 0
Re: Whiting Pet
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:12 pm
by dan_s
Try not to get too excited about GAAP earnings per share from quarter-to-quarter. This business is all about production and reserve growth. WLL holds some of the most valuable acreage in the Bakken and they are on-track to meet my production growth target of 21.6% in 2012. My 2013 forecast is now looking very conservative. I will have an updated forecast model on the website (under the Sweet 16 Tab) tomorrow. - Dan
James J. Volker, Whiting’s Chairman and CEO, commented, “We are pleased to report that our active drilling program is on track for 20% to 23% production growth in 2012. We continue to post some of the best drilling results from the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin. According to the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Whiting’s average well drilled across the Williston Basin remains the most productive over the first 12 months of production of all operators in the Basin. In addition, our Niobrara project in the DJ Basin has scored impressive new well results.”
Mr. Volker continued, “Our Bakken crude is currently trading at a slight premium to NYMEX crude prices as take-away capacity from the Williston Basin continues to expand. The narrower basis differential added to our discretionary cash flow in the third quarter and should have a greater impact in the fourth quarter. "
Re: Whiting Pet
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:20 pm
by dan_s
Whiting's production and cash flow per share beat my forecast. It is hard to explain why stock sold off but I have not listened to the cc yet.
Production growth should be over 21% year-over-year, the year-end reserve report should be very good and Q4 forecast looks good. This stock really looks cheap.
I should have the updated forecast model posted under the Sweet 16 Tab late today.
Re: Whiting Pet
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:26 pm
by dan_s
I still think analysts fail to see the upside for Whiting in their Texas EOR project. As this field pressures up, they should get a big proven reserve addition. - dan
North Ward Estes Field. Net production from our North Ward Estes field averaged 8,465 BOE per day in the third quarter of 2012. One of the largest phases at North Ward Estes (Phase 3B) is pressuring up with CO2, and we anticipate a production response in the first quarter of 2013. Whiting is currently injecting approximately 340 MMcf of CO2 per day into the field, of which about 64% is recycled gas.
Re: Whiting Pet
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:14 pm
by dan_s
Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio: An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for Whiting Petroleum (WLL) is now available under the Sweet 16 Tab.
Re: Whiting Pet
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:20 pm
by dan_s
Whiting Petroleum has a strong balance sheet and one of the most attractive acreage positions in the Bakken / Three Forks play. It also has the best average well results in the Bakken, which means they know what they are doing.
I also like what they have in the Niobrara and in West Texas.
Sure looks to me that this one should be trading at a much higher multiple than 4X CFPS.
First Call's Price Target is $60.22
My Fair Value Estimate (break-up value) can be found at the bottom of the forecast model I just posted to the website.