Sweet 16 Update - April 12
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2026 2:05 pm
I needed to finish my federal tax return on Saturday morning, so I am just getting started on updating the forecast/valuation models for the Sweet 16. I did see that First Call's price targets have moved over the valuations in my March newsletter for 9 of the Sweet 16 > AR, DVN, FANG, EQT, MGY, PR, RRC, SEI, TOU.TO. < This tells me that most of the Wall Street Gang is now using higher oil prices to value the companies.
My goal is to get all of the Sweet 16 forecast models updated this weekend. Sabrina will be posting several of them to the EPG website later today.
Forecast models updated on Saturday: AR, CTRA, CRGY, DVN, FANG. < Devon Energy (DVN) is going to draw a lot of attention when the stock-for-stock merger with Coterra (CTRA) closes in a few weeks. Devon will then become a "Must Own" stock of most Growth + Income funds.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Devon Energy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $55.00 with a high forecast of $67.00 and a low forecast of $41.00. The average price target represents a 15.09% change from the last price of $47.79." < The six most recently updated price targets range from $59 to $62.
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Sunday:
Today I will focus on the Sweet 16 companies that should get the largest reaction to rising oil prices.
EOG Resources (EOG): Based on my updated oil & gas price deck, my valuation of EOG increases by $11 to $170. NONE of EOG's oil is hedged.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 22 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for EOG Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $150.20 with a high forecast of $199.00 and a low forecast of $110.00. The average price target represents a 10.29% change from the last price of $136.19."
On April 8: "Wells Fargo raised the firm’s price target on EOG Resources (EOG) to $199 from $155 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm expects continued robust field execution and financial beats for Q1 2026. Key focus areas include the trajectory of gas realizations as liquefied natural gas-linked volumes ramp and the evolution of cash return framework."
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Based on my updated forecast, my valuation of MGY increases by $3 to $36 per share. NONE of MGY's oil is hedged.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Magnolia Oil & Gas in the last 3 months. The average price target is $32.33 with a high forecast of $38.00 and a low forecast of $26.00. The average price target represents a 8.13% change from the last price of $29.90."
Matador Resources (MTDR) is now one of my TOP PICKS in our Sweet 16. It closed at $59.86 on April 10th. At that price it is a Screaming Takeover Target. Based on my updated forecast, my valuation increases by $8 to $84 per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Matador Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $68.19 with a high forecast of $85.00 and a low forecast of $54.00. The average price target represents a 13.92% change from the last price of $59.86." < On April 8, Scott Hanold (a 5-Star rated energy sector analyst) at RBC Capital raised his price target for MTDR from $60 to $77.
Permian Basin (PR): My "Dream Merger" is a stock-for-stock merger of MTDR into PR.
I have increased my valuation by $1.50 to $25.50 per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 18 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Permian Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $23.41 with a high forecast of $27.00 and a low forecast of $14.00. The average price target represents a 13.31% change from the last price of $20.66."
SM Energy (SM): This is one of three "Special Situation" companies in the Sweet 16 due to the merger of Civitas into SM that closed January 30, 2026, which was followed by the $950 million Maverick Basin Sale that should close in a few weeks. After the sale closes, SM should have production of approximately 420,000 Boepd (~55% crude oil). About 50% of their oil is hedged at a blended price of $64/bbl, which is the only thing keeping a lid on my valuation.
I have increased my valuation by $8 to $57 per share, which is just 3.25 X annualized operating cash flow per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for SM Energy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $34.50 with a high forecast of $49.00 and a low forecast of $19.00. The average price target represents a 21.56% change from the last price of $28.38." < After SM announces Q1 results on May 7th and updated guidance for the remainder of the year, I expect SM to get a lot more "love" from the Wall Street Gang.
My goal is to get all of the Sweet 16 forecast models updated this weekend. Sabrina will be posting several of them to the EPG website later today.
Forecast models updated on Saturday: AR, CTRA, CRGY, DVN, FANG. < Devon Energy (DVN) is going to draw a lot of attention when the stock-for-stock merger with Coterra (CTRA) closes in a few weeks. Devon will then become a "Must Own" stock of most Growth + Income funds.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Devon Energy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $55.00 with a high forecast of $67.00 and a low forecast of $41.00. The average price target represents a 15.09% change from the last price of $47.79." < The six most recently updated price targets range from $59 to $62.
-------------------
Sunday:
Today I will focus on the Sweet 16 companies that should get the largest reaction to rising oil prices.
EOG Resources (EOG): Based on my updated oil & gas price deck, my valuation of EOG increases by $11 to $170. NONE of EOG's oil is hedged.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 22 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for EOG Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $150.20 with a high forecast of $199.00 and a low forecast of $110.00. The average price target represents a 10.29% change from the last price of $136.19."
On April 8: "Wells Fargo raised the firm’s price target on EOG Resources (EOG) to $199 from $155 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm expects continued robust field execution and financial beats for Q1 2026. Key focus areas include the trajectory of gas realizations as liquefied natural gas-linked volumes ramp and the evolution of cash return framework."
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Based on my updated forecast, my valuation of MGY increases by $3 to $36 per share. NONE of MGY's oil is hedged.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Magnolia Oil & Gas in the last 3 months. The average price target is $32.33 with a high forecast of $38.00 and a low forecast of $26.00. The average price target represents a 8.13% change from the last price of $29.90."
Matador Resources (MTDR) is now one of my TOP PICKS in our Sweet 16. It closed at $59.86 on April 10th. At that price it is a Screaming Takeover Target. Based on my updated forecast, my valuation increases by $8 to $84 per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Matador Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $68.19 with a high forecast of $85.00 and a low forecast of $54.00. The average price target represents a 13.92% change from the last price of $59.86." < On April 8, Scott Hanold (a 5-Star rated energy sector analyst) at RBC Capital raised his price target for MTDR from $60 to $77.
Permian Basin (PR): My "Dream Merger" is a stock-for-stock merger of MTDR into PR.
I have increased my valuation by $1.50 to $25.50 per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 18 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Permian Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $23.41 with a high forecast of $27.00 and a low forecast of $14.00. The average price target represents a 13.31% change from the last price of $20.66."
SM Energy (SM): This is one of three "Special Situation" companies in the Sweet 16 due to the merger of Civitas into SM that closed January 30, 2026, which was followed by the $950 million Maverick Basin Sale that should close in a few weeks. After the sale closes, SM should have production of approximately 420,000 Boepd (~55% crude oil). About 50% of their oil is hedged at a blended price of $64/bbl, which is the only thing keeping a lid on my valuation.
I have increased my valuation by $8 to $57 per share, which is just 3.25 X annualized operating cash flow per share.
TipRanks Premium: "Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for SM Energy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $34.50 with a high forecast of $49.00 and a low forecast of $19.00. The average price target represents a 21.56% change from the last price of $28.38." < After SM announces Q1 results on May 7th and updated guidance for the remainder of the year, I expect SM to get a lot more "love" from the Wall Street Gang.