Sweet 16 Update as of December 15
Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:26 pm
There has been very little net movement in the share prices of the Sweet 16 since December 1st. There has been a lot of flopping around in reaction to headlines about the Fiscal Cliff or the price of oil.
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) is the star of this year's Sweet-16. It is up 31% YTD and 238% since being added to the S-16 on January 1, 2010. I believe it has a lot more upside since it appears to have some of the best acreage in the Utica Shale. It also has a stake in a large Canadian Oil Sands project that has HUGE upside and could be on-line within a year. First Call's price target for GPOR has gone up more than $2/share, to $44.15, since they released Q3 results and their Utica Shale update.
Cimarex Energy (XEC) is the only S-16 member that has pulled back over the last two weeks and I see no reason for the pullback. It does not have any production hedged beyond year-end and they may have made a fund manager nervous. XEC has one of the strongest balance sheets in the portfolio and has a very large inventory of low risk development drilling locations in the Permian Basin and in Oklahoma. I updated my forecast model for XEC and posted it to the website this morning. First Call's price target is $77.05/share and you can see my Fair Value estimate at the bottom of my forecast model.
SM Energy (SM) looks very attractive to me at the current share price. First Call's price target is $72.24, which is very close to my Fair Value. SM has more than 20% production growth locked in for 2012 and 2013.
I will have a lot more to say about the Sweet 16 in my next newsletter, which I hope to send out Monday.
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) is the star of this year's Sweet-16. It is up 31% YTD and 238% since being added to the S-16 on January 1, 2010. I believe it has a lot more upside since it appears to have some of the best acreage in the Utica Shale. It also has a stake in a large Canadian Oil Sands project that has HUGE upside and could be on-line within a year. First Call's price target for GPOR has gone up more than $2/share, to $44.15, since they released Q3 results and their Utica Shale update.
Cimarex Energy (XEC) is the only S-16 member that has pulled back over the last two weeks and I see no reason for the pullback. It does not have any production hedged beyond year-end and they may have made a fund manager nervous. XEC has one of the strongest balance sheets in the portfolio and has a very large inventory of low risk development drilling locations in the Permian Basin and in Oklahoma. I updated my forecast model for XEC and posted it to the website this morning. First Call's price target is $77.05/share and you can see my Fair Value estimate at the bottom of my forecast model.
SM Energy (SM) looks very attractive to me at the current share price. First Call's price target is $72.24, which is very close to my Fair Value. SM has more than 20% production growth locked in for 2012 and 2013.
I will have a lot more to say about the Sweet 16 in my next newsletter, which I hope to send out Monday.