This from bob desroche on the IV board. Combined with record low demand in the US, it seems likely to keep sector pricing under pressure. W/ climate change taking the edge off winter and boosting A/C costs, the seasonal demand peaks seem to be reversing (!)
<<World Real Oil Production Slowly Increasing
For a long time, crude and condensate (C&C) was essentially flat and one could truthfully argue that all the increase in total liquids was coming from NGLs and biofuels (ie that "real oil" was plateaued or peaking). However, this is no longer true: global C&C production has increased by about 2mbd since the beginning of 2005. Over eight years, this is only a 0.33% average rate of growth - an incredibly slow crawl upward. However, it seems indisputable that it has grown.
We seem to be on a bumpy plateau of global oil production, but that plateau has had a very slight upward tilt.
<It is interesting to note that in the early 00's increased world oil demand was meet by the rocovery of Russian oil production and in the late 00's and early 10's the drop in demand from the US and Europe filled that role. Now it might be possible that we are starting to see real supply growth.> >
world oil production +
Re: world oil production +
Crude oil or "Black Oil" production did appear to peak until horizontal drilling opened up the Bakken and Eagle Ford.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group