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January 15 Blog

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:16 pm
by dan_s
Don't look now but things are looking up for natural gas prices. The next six NG storage reports are critical. If we can draw a tcf from storage by the end of February it could be a "comeback year" for the gassers and very good news for the onshore drillers. I still think we have a shot at seeing $4 NG this year.

PetroBakken confirmed that they hit their goal of 52,000 boepd production in December and they announced a capital program that should increase production 10% to 12% in 2013. The stock price went down right after the announcement - go figure! Based on my forecast (which is posted under the Watch List Tab) PetroBakken should generate enough cash flow to cover the capital program and they plan to keep paying dividends of $0.08 per month. That means the yield is now around 10%.

CRZO announced plans to run six rigs all year, focused on increasing oil production. Primarily from the Eagle Ford. Based on my forecast model, CRZO is one very cheap stock (selling at less than 3X CFPS) with a lot of running room in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara. See our profile under the Sweet 16 Tab.

The market sure liked the Denbury Resources acquisition from ConocoPhillips. I will update my forecast model on DNR tomorrow.

All of the Sweet 16 went green during the last hour of trading.

I am getting up to speed on three small-caps that look interesting, TPLM, CPE and SYRG. Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) looks very interesting. Production is going to double from Q3 to Q4, which should raise a few eyebrows on Wall Street. The balance sheet is in good shape and CFPS could top $2.00 next fiscal year.

Every day that WTI crude oil stays over $90/bbl makes me feel more confident in my 2013 forecast. The NYMEX strips for oil and gas look darn good today. Thank you Mother Nature for a cold wave!

Hang tough, this could be a very interesting year.

I will be attending the Australian American Conference on Friday. EPG members get in for $199, so join me if you can.
Call Jennifer Schafer (713) 527-9688 to get our special rate.