Energy Prospectus

March is now the front month contract. As I write this note it is right at $98.00/bbl. Signs that the global economy (primarily Asia) is firming up and a weakening U.S. dollar are bullish for oil.

March crude oil prices registered a new high for the move during the early morning hours, supported by weakness in the US dollar, modest gains in global equity markets and a new contract high in March RBOB. The market turned lower in the wake of US GDP data that unexpectedly contracted during the fourth quarter. This morning's EIA inventory data showed a much larger than expected build in US crude supplies last week of 5.947 million barrels. This left current supplies at their highest level on record for this time of the year. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 8.068 million barrels per day compared to 7.730 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was up 1.4% to 85.0%. March Crude Oil prices managed to rebound later in the session and toward the $98.00 level.

Natural Gas: Thursday morning's storage report should show a draw of 200+ bcf. If it comes in much lower we should see more weakness in the gas prices.

IMO to keep NG over $3.00/mcf this year we need to see gas in storage under 2,200 bcf by the end of March. It looks like the weather is turning mild next week, so these next two storage reports are very important.