Energy Prospectus

Swift's market cap is only $582 million, compare to the value of their proven reserves below. Net debt is about $1.2 Billion.

Swift Energy’s year-end 2012 estimate of proved reserves as of December 31, 2012 was 192.1 MMBoe, 20% higher than 2011 year-end proved reserves of 159.6 MMBoe. These year-end 2012 proved reserves are 48% crude oil and natural gas liquids and 34% proved developed.

Swift Energy’s year-end 2012 proved reserves were valued at approximately $2.3 billion of present value discounted at 10% per year (PV-10), compared to a PV-10 value of $1.9 billion for the Company’s 2011 year-end proved reserves, a 19% increase despite lower gas prices. Pricing for 2012 reserves and PV-10 calculations utilized $103.64 per barrel for crude oil and $2.71 per thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) for natural gas, compared to $103.87 per barrel and $3.89 per Mcfe used for reserves valuation at year-end 2011.

Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio: An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for Swift Energy (SFY) has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab. My adjusted Fair Value Estimate (break-up value) can be found at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

The share price dipped yesterday because of the two day drop in crude oil prices and the company's announcement of a significant decrease in their capital expenditures for 2013. I think the decision to slow down a bit is a smart move. Swift's 4th quarter results beat my forecast.

Per my updated forecast, Swift's CFPS will be over $7/share in 2013. This stock deserves to trade at more than 2X CFPS.

First Call's price target is $25.42. It probably will go down a bit over the next few days but I don't see a big drop coming.

As I have posted before, SFY and CRZO will be moved into our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio because the S-16 will be limited to companies over $1Billion in market cap. BCEI is moving up to the Sweet 16 and we are now taking a hard look at NBL.