Energy Prospectus

Big jump in oil production is the most impressive. I'm working on the forecast model and will post it today. - Dan

HOUSTON, TX--(Marketwire - Feb 26, 2013) - Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. ( NASDAQ : CRZO ) today announced the Company's record financial results for the fourth quarter of 2012, which included the following highlights:

Results for the fourth quarter of 2012-
•Record Oil Production of 9,033 Bbls/d, a 4% sequential increase over the third quarter of 2012 and a 190% increase over the fourth quarter of 2011


•Natural Gas and NGL Production of 100,924 Mcfe/d


•Total Production of 2,379 MBoe, or 25,859 Boe/d


•Record Oil Revenue of $81.2 million, amounting to 76% of total revenue, a 6% sequential increase over the third quarter of 2012 and a 188% increase over the fourth quarter of 2011


•Record Revenue of $107.5 million, or adjusted revenue of $116.7 million, including the impact of realized hedges, a 12% sequential increase over the third quarter of 2012 and a 93% increase over the fourth quarter of 2011


•Net Income of $18.5 million, $0.46 per diluted share, or Adjusted Net Income (as defined below) of $21.7 million, $0.54 per diluted share


•Record EBITDA (as defined below) of $93.0 million, an 8% sequential increase over the third quarter of 2012 and a 90% increase over the fourth quarter of 2011

Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) reported 4th quarter results that beat our forecast. An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab. Available to EPG members only.

We will be publishing an updated profile on CRZO late this week. With their impressive results, I think we will see several analysts upgrade this one. First Call's price target of $30 is less than 4X my cash flow per share estimate for 2013. That is a very low multiple for a company with this much running room in the Eagle Ford, Niobrara and Marcellus.

CRZO's production has grown by over 20% two years in a row. My forecast model assumes only 14% growth in 2013. I need to spend more time on the model, so there is upside to my Fair Value Estimate. You can find it at the bottom of the forecast model. I think CRZO should be trading for AT LEAST 5X CFPS.

Wall Street still thinks this is a gasser but close to 80% of revenues are from the sale of oil and NGLs. Liquids production will continue to ramp up this year. Plus, almost 50% of 2013 natural gas production is hedged at $4.63/mcf.

crzo is breaking out of the trading range it has been in last three months--very little resistance to $25.