Energy Prospectus

Energy XXI (EXXI): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for EXXI has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

Lots of complaints about this one, but they are actually putting up some decent numbers. Paring a hurricane late this summer, Energy XXI should generate some solid production growth over the next two quarters and start to generate lots of free cash flow by year-end.

First Call's price target is $38.92 and I would expect that to go up if this quarter's production tops 50,000 boepd, which it should.

We will update the profile next week and I will take a hard look at my forecast again.

Canaccord Genuity pares near term estimates a bit but retains BUY and $38 target for EXXI.
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_ ... ubid=91362

ghrcap wrote:Canaccord Genuity pares near term estimates a bit but retains BUY and $38 target for EXXI.
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_ ... ubid=91362

It seems to me that the resource is well established to enable the production. It also seems to me that the technical expertise required to exploit the resource is a completely open question. The changes defined by Schiller in the CC (along with the commentary) indicate they recognize they have been running a sloppy ship. While it is good they recognize it - I think he/they deserve a lot vocal criticism as their follies have cost some of us a lot of money.

IMO the continued problems with Davy Jones is what has held down the share price. I met with management a few weeks ago and I feel they are now focused the horizontal development well program that should ramp up production over the next few quarters.

Near term hurricane risk could keep a lid on this one. See our profile, which is now available under the Sweet 16 Tab.

Our website has been moved to "The Cloud", which has caused several problems. Looks like they are now fixed.

dan_s wrote:IMO the continued problems with Davy Jones is what has held down the share price. I met with management a few weeks ago and I feel they are now focused the horizontal development well program that should ramp up production over the next few quarters.

Near term hurricane risk could keep a lid on this one. See our profile, which is now available under the Sweet 16 Tab.

Our website has been moved to "The Cloud", which has caused several problems. Looks like they are now fixed.

Dan - DJ1 had absolutely nothing to do with the misses in your forecasts as you included nothing for it. One could actually argue that the disaster at DJ1 enabled the recent Laphroaig acquisition from MMR. To me the problem was a simple failure to execute the basic blocking and tackling. Do you remember the BOP test that trashed a well? I know I rant on this - but the lousy execution has cost me. I have bought the right to bitch at the lousy execution of Schiller.

I feel your pain my friend. Just remember, this is risky business and there are going to be screw-ups along the way. I can tell you about some major blunders at Hess offshore but we also made some major discoveries.

The share repurchase plan at EXXI will provide a floor and important signal to the market if this post on the Investor Village board is factually correct. I can't recall another company committing to spend a large amount of money within such a confined window. You might verify with your sources at EXXI, Dan, and Flash Alert subscribers if true and appropriate.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp ... d=12807158

i found this----

Energy XXI Board of Directors Approves Stock Repurchase Program 05/06 08:00 AM

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HOUSTON, May 6, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Energy XXI (EXXI:$25.20,00$0.18,000.72%) today announced its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase up to $250 million in value of the company's common stock from time to time, in one or more open-market transactions.

The repurchase program authorizes Energy XXI to make repurchases on a discretionary basis as determined by management, subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements, available liquidity and other appropriate factors. The repurchase program does not obligate Energy XXI to acquire any particular amount of common stock and may be modified or suspended at any time and could be terminated prior to completion. The repurchase program will be funded from the company's cash on hand or available revolving credit facility. Any repurchased shares of common stock will be retained at the subsidiary level, subject to transfer to the parent company where they may be retired.

In connection with the repurchase program, on May 1, 2013, the Board of Directors also approved a Rule 10b5-1 plan that allows Energy XXI to repurchase common stock at times when it otherwise might be prevented from doing so under insider trading laws or because of self-imposed trading blackout periods. A broker selected by the company will have the authority under the pricing parameters and other terms and limitations specified in the 10b5-1 plan to repurchase shares on the company's behalf. The company will periodically report the number of shares purchased under the plan.

"The repurchase program reflects the confidence we have in the company and its prospects," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Schiller said. "We believe our own stock at these prices represents the best acquisition prospect currently available to us."

I know they think their stock is grossly undervalued. Plus, they have the cash flows to handle this.

Good move today!

Schiller said at the UBS Conference they have repurchased one million shares in the new program for around $25 each.

"...So why invest in us? Please. We've got a big oil field, a lot of oil in the ground. We know where it is. And we got the economics working our way to get it out the ground. The reserve growth is going to continue. I think you can see an even bigger growth this year. We've got a lot of things going as a result of the horizontal wells. We're drilling 300,000 barrels PUD and getting 1.3 million bookings. That goes through the wells we drill and it goes to the offset PUDS that we book. All of those things are positives in terms of reserve creation valuation.

The oil focus. We may go as low as 60% oil, depending on how big some of the gas wells are. They come on for a period. But long term, as we do the horizontal work, we're going to stay in that 65% to 75% oil ratio, which means 90% of our revenues at current prices come from oil. Our horizontal redevelopment's a big part of that. And then the balance sheet, it remains strong. If there's a right deal, would go get it.

But the right deal, right now is buying our stocks. And that's what we announced a stock buyback. If you haven't seen yesterdays announcement, courtesy of our listening in London, every other Wednesday, we'll tell you how much we bought the last 2 weeks, the low price, the high price and the average price. So first 2 weeks, we bought 1 million shares at around $25 a share. We'll continue that. We'll have a 10-B [ph] filed during our closed period. And as I said, we're selling cheap, so we're going to put our money where our mouth is and buy back the stock and be very happy doing that."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1458561 ... urce=yahoo