Energy Prospectus

Gulfport Energy cuts Q3 production outlook • 9:39 AM

Gulfport Energy (GPOR -3.7%) cuts its Q3 production outlook to 12,250-12,750 boe/day from its prior view of 14K-15K boe/day, citing pipeline infrastructure delays and higher than expected downtime during simultaneous operations.

GPOR's Irons 1-4H well was scheduled to be flowing into a sales pipeline by mid-August, but infrastructure and permitting delays will cause the well to begin flowing into sales by the end of October.

GPOR says its full-year production estimate remains unchanged.
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however, in the end it will be ok.
jim

I will look it over and update my forecast model.

They are going to have a heck of a 4th quarter to meet full year guidance.

BTW completions delays related to midstream issues don't concern me. It is only when the wells themselves don't meet expectations.

i don't think they will meet full year guidance. check out the actual PR below. it says "at this time" re full year. and announces

"Gulfport plans to provide further guidance on its expected full year 2013 production at the time of its third quarter 2013 earnings release and conference call in early November."

in reality, they really don't know.
jim

OKLAHOMA CITY, Sept. 10, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR:$62.78,00$-1.08,00-1.69%) today provided an update on its third quarter 2013 and full year 2013 production guidance.

Gulfport currently estimates third quarter 2013 production to be in the range of 12,250 to 12,750 BOEPD. Gulfport's prior third quarter guidance has been adversely impacted by pipeline infrastructure delays and higher than anticipated downtime during simultaneous operations. Gulfport's Irons 1-4H well was scheduled to be flowing into a sales pipeline by mid-August, however the third party midstream provider has experienced pipeline infrastructure and permitting delays and Gulfport now anticipates the well will begin flowing into sales by the end of October. At this time, Gulfport's full year 2013 guidance remains unchanged. Gulfport plans to provide further guidance on its expected full year 2013 production at the time of its third quarter 2013 earnings release and conference call in early November.

Gulfport Energy (GPOR): The company lowered their production guidance. An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

GPOR's previous full year production guidance for 2013 was 13,700 to 16,400 boepd.
For my forecast, I am now assuming actual production will be 12,700 boepd for 2013 with an exit rate near 28,000 boepd.

For 2014, I am now assuming 45,000 boepd.

This lowers my Fair Value Estimate $3.65/share to $67.50.

A couple things to keep in mind for GPOR:
> They have a large stake in a Canadian Oil Sands company that will be ramping up production quickly, starting in Q4
> They also hold 13.5% equity in FANG, a very promising Permian Basin company.
> Therefore, it deserves to trade at a much higher multiple than the rest of the pack.

When you look at my forecast, take a hard look at Total Revenues on Row 12.

disappointment didn't last long----

now--

(here's the correction---)

COVERAGE REITERATED: Gulfport Energy (GPOR) reiterated by Wunderlich. Reiterated rating Buy. 09/11 04:41 AM

PT raised $70>75

Error above. That is Gulfport that was raised to a price target of $75.

well ya gotta admit it looks good.

i guess i forgot to copy the gpor reiteration and pasted what was already there. gotta be more careful

If GPOR drifts below $60, I rate it a Screaming Buy.

My valuation is $67.30/share, but that is based on 2013 annual production of 12,700 boepd, which is 1,000 boepd below the bottom of their current production guidance. I still think Gulfport will end the year in the 26,000 to 28,000 boepd range. First quarter production was 6,400 boepd, so they have almost double production in six months and will probably double it again before year-end.

I also reduced my 2014 production forecast to 45,000 boepd from 52,000 boepd. Current pipeline issues may not have any impact on Gulfport's production next year.

Gulfport's production guidance came down because of infrastructure delays. Those tend to get resolved. Believe me, Dominion (D) and MarkWest (MWE) are working hard to resolve the issues.

IMO the market has over-reacted to GPOR's production miss for the quarter. A few months from now, investors may be kicking themselves for selling on short-term issues and loosing sight of the long-term potential here.