Gastar (GST and GST-PA)
Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:57 pm
I took a hard look at Gastar today. I am raising my Fair Value Estimate to $5.60/share.
I believe they will close the sale to Cubic Energy next week, but even if they don't my valuation won't go down.
If GST reaches my exit rate of 11,000 boepd AND they report good drilling results in their Oklahoma Hunton play, this stock could take off. Take a hard look at my valuation formula on the bottom of my forecast spreadsheet (which you can download from the Watch List). It is very conservative for a company with this much running room. They have hundreds of development drilling locations in both their liquids rich Marcellus acreage and in Oklahoma.
1. I am using only 6X CFPS (very low multiple for a company with lots of running room)
2. I am using CFPS for 2012-2014. At year-end that will roll forward one year, taking my Fair Value Estimate to over $7/share.
3. If Ngas prices push over $4.00/mcf next year, which I think is very possible, this one's Fair Value could top $10/share.
Take a look at how First Call now has GST's EPS ramping higher quarter-after-quarter. That should draw a lot of attention from Wall Street + their Oklahoma project has lots of running room.
Gastar's pfd stock (GST-PA) is now ROCK SOLID. It pays dividends monthly and the annual yield is ~9%.
GST is now up more than 200% YTD, making it one of my Top Picks of the year.
I believe they will close the sale to Cubic Energy next week, but even if they don't my valuation won't go down.
If GST reaches my exit rate of 11,000 boepd AND they report good drilling results in their Oklahoma Hunton play, this stock could take off. Take a hard look at my valuation formula on the bottom of my forecast spreadsheet (which you can download from the Watch List). It is very conservative for a company with this much running room. They have hundreds of development drilling locations in both their liquids rich Marcellus acreage and in Oklahoma.
1. I am using only 6X CFPS (very low multiple for a company with lots of running room)
2. I am using CFPS for 2012-2014. At year-end that will roll forward one year, taking my Fair Value Estimate to over $7/share.
3. If Ngas prices push over $4.00/mcf next year, which I think is very possible, this one's Fair Value could top $10/share.
Take a look at how First Call now has GST's EPS ramping higher quarter-after-quarter. That should draw a lot of attention from Wall Street + their Oklahoma project has lots of running room.
Gastar's pfd stock (GST-PA) is now ROCK SOLID. It pays dividends monthly and the annual yield is ~9%.
GST is now up more than 200% YTD, making it one of my Top Picks of the year.