Energy Prospectus

Halcon Reports 3Q13 Average Daily Production of 37,707 Boe/d; +237% Year-Over-Year.

This is 3,500 Boe/d more than I had in my forecast model. My Fair Value Estimate was $10.35 but it will probably go up now.

from seeking alpha---------

Halcon Resources misses by $0.02, beats on revenues • 4:35 PM

Halcon Resources (HK): Q3 EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of $305M (+316% Y/Y) beats by $46.64M. (PR)

I was just looking at the NR on HK. I see CFPS as $.39 and your model at $.40 vs first call of $.28. IMO that looks like a Yahoo. I need a tutorial. My simplistic looks shows a bit down in after hours.

My basic belief is that betting on Wilson has a good history of success.

Bob

Halcon Resources Corp. (HK) reported 3rd quarter production that beat our forecast. An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.

I will take a hard look at this one again at the end of November.

Don't freak out over the reported loss for the quarter. It includes a big non-cash impairment charge and mark-to-market adjustment on their hedges. Focus on cash flow per share and their increasing production, both of which beat my forecast.

I added HK to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio last month and I believe it will be a good stock for us in 2014.

3rd quarter CFPS was $0.46. Beat my forecast.

See row 50 on the forecast model.

DOWNGRADE: Halcon Resources (HK) downgraded by Global Hunter Securities from Neutral to Sell. 11/06 08:09 AM
PT $6>3.50

DOWNGRADE: Halcon Resources (HK) downgraded by Canaccord Genuity from Buy to Hold. 11/06 08:39 AM
PT $7>6.00

what was it in their report that mkt didn't like i know they missed eps by a couple of cents, but

btw, global hunter was not on the cc.

here's some answers

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1811322 ... e_readmore

Looks like the market has over-reacted on this one to me. Based on my forecast model, HK CFPS should be around $1.50 in 2014.

Production was 37,706 boepd in Q3 (83% crude oil) and should average over 40,000 boepd in 2014. This is a decent size company with some good assets in the Bakken and East Texas. If they sell off some non-core assets to focus on their high ROR assets, that sounds like a good thing to me.

additional comments from downgraders from seeking alpha---------

Halcon Resources slides after double downgraded • 11:47 AM

Halcon Resources (HK -9.6%) is downgraded to Sell from Neutral with a $3.50 price target, down from $6, at Global Hunter, believing the risk associated with HK's levered balance sheet and repeated overspending is greater than the potential upside associated with development of its asset base.

HK's inventory is relatively light for a company approaching $6B in enterprise value, the firm says, and sees the market still applying too much credit to HK's portfolio of emerging plays that have shown a lack of consistently strong results.

Shares are cut to Hold from Buy at Canaccord, preferring to move to the sidelines due to HK's stretched valuation, reduced NAV, high financial leverage, and the Utica taking longer to pan out.

Black cloud will hang over this one for awhile. Better places to place your bets now.