CRK
Re: CRK
This is why you pay me the Big Bucks!
Take a look at my forecast model for CRK, which you can find under the Watch List Tab. Download it to Excel and see what $4.25 gas does for earnings and cash flow. I think you will say "wow".
None of their natural gas is hedged. Even if they only get $3.50/mcf for their ngas next year, I think CRK is going to crush the current First Call EPS forecast for 2014. Even with gas at $3.50 their cash flow per share should be close to $10/share. Over $100 million in free cash flow next year based on my model.
The main reason I put CRK in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio is because of what they have going in the Eagle Ford. Their oil production is going to ramp up big in 2014 with the first big jump in Q4 of this year.
CRK will report a loss in Q4, but then it should be earnings positive in Q1. When it goes earnings positive, it should march up to my Fair Value Estimate of $28/share. Accumulate it on the dips.
Take a look at my forecast model for CRK, which you can find under the Watch List Tab. Download it to Excel and see what $4.25 gas does for earnings and cash flow. I think you will say "wow".
None of their natural gas is hedged. Even if they only get $3.50/mcf for their ngas next year, I think CRK is going to crush the current First Call EPS forecast for 2014. Even with gas at $3.50 their cash flow per share should be close to $10/share. Over $100 million in free cash flow next year based on my model.
The main reason I put CRK in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio is because of what they have going in the Eagle Ford. Their oil production is going to ramp up big in 2014 with the first big jump in Q4 of this year.
CRK will report a loss in Q4, but then it should be earnings positive in Q1. When it goes earnings positive, it should march up to my Fair Value Estimate of $28/share. Accumulate it on the dips.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group