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Canadian Natural
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:34 pm
by adamlloyd
Does anyone here follow this company? They are forecasting free cash flow of $5+ per share from 2018 onwards (a P/FCF of around 6), once the major capital spending on Horizon is behind them. That's based on $83 WTI and as 22% heavy oil differential. They are about 75% weighted to oil currently. Its always seemed to be a well managed company to me.
Thanks, Adam
Re: Canadian Natural
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:11 pm
by setliff
4-5 years out is a hell of a guidance and i would say--awright, but maybe.
jim
Re: Canadian Natural
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:57 pm
by adamlloyd
Well yes, any forecast five years out has to taken with a big grain of salt. But CNQ is not really an exploration company, they are mainly focused on exploiting their heavy oil thermal in situ and polymer floods, plus Horizon. So there should be fewer unknowns. They're a bit like Denbury in that regard. They have free cash flow now, but the big jump is in 2017 and 2018. And they do pay a dividend.
Adam