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MWE

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:21 am
by gjames
Dan,
Wondering if your take on MWE has changed any recently? Shares have been punished lately on a weak quarter, and now a secondary offering this morning. It seems like MLP price dips on a secondary offering in the past have been pretty good buying opportunities. Would like to make sure your opinion hasn't changed before I add more.
Thanks!

Re: MWE

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:44 pm
by dan_s
Thanks for reminding me that I need to update my forecast model for MWE. I will do it today and have more comments later.

I thought yesterday's press release by RRC contained some very good news for MWE.

Feds decision today to leave interest rates low should help all MLPs.

Re: MWE

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:13 pm
by dan_s
DCF = Distributable Cash Flows

For 2013, the Partnership forecasts DCF in a range of $475 million to $485 million based on its current forecast of operational volumes, expected impact of short-term operational constraints and prices for crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and derivative instruments currently outstanding.

For 2014, the Partnership forecasts DCF in a range of $600 million to $690 million based on its current forecast of operational volumes and prices for crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and derivative instruments currently outstanding. A commodity price sensitivity analysis for forecasted 2014 DCF is provided within the tables of this press release.

My take: Cash distributions to unit holders should be $3.50 to $3.60 in 2014.

The last quarterly distribution was $0.85/unit.

Re: MWE

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:25 pm
by dan_s
MarkWest Energy Partners LP (MWE): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the MLP Tab.

First Call's 12-month target price is $77.83, which looks reasonable to me.

For higher yield (and a bit more risk) take a look at our recent profiles on SXE and MEMP. Both look very attractive to me at the current unit prices.

Re: MWE

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:08 pm
by gjames
Thanks Dan!!