Energy Prospectus

excellent article---------

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1922881 ... _0_0&ifp=0

Based on my forecast model, which you can find under our Watch List tab, SFY will generate $7-$8 cash flow per share in 2014. They should be able to fund their entire 2014 capital budget from operating cash flows + the proceeds from the sale of their central Louisiana asset package. The sale should be announced soon. I expect the sale announcement to draw a lot of attention for this one.

SFY is trading today at less than 2X CFPS. That is a ridiculous price for a company with running room in the Eagle Ford.

I have attempted to get SFY to host luncheons for us in Houston and Dallas, but no luck so far. They need to do a much better job of getting their story out there.

The January $12.50 short puts look like an interesting opportunity for premium harvest or cheap stock on a net basis, but this weak tape might persist.

I shorted another 10 for Friday today at $0.55 (unafraid of my own cooking). Zacks has SFY on their potential squeeze list as estimates are creeping up.

<Zacks has SFY on their potential squeeze list as estimates are creeping up.>

ghrcap, would you elaborate on this statement?

tia

SFY is on-track to report $0.65 to $0.70 EPS for 2013 and over $7.00/share of cash flow. They should soon report a buyer for their central Louisiana package. The sale will shore up their balance sheet and allow them to focus even more attention on the Eagle Ford.

Unless they report some very bad results in the Eagle Ford, I see no way this stock deserves to trade at less than 2X CFPS.

"Is A Short Squeeze Ahead for Swift Energy Company (SFY)? - Tale of the Tape
8:56a ET January 8, 2014 (Zacks.com)
Many investors appear to be quite bearish Swift Energy Company (SFY) especially if you look at the percentage of the float that is sold short for this stock. Currently, 31.2% of the float is sold short, suggesting an extreme level of bearishness for SFY.

However, it is worth noting that earnings estimates have actually been moving higher for the company, despite the pessimism. Thanks to these rising estimates, we actually have a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on SFY, so we clearly don’t believe in the negativity surrounding this firm, and are instead looking for shares of SFY to move higher in the weeks ahead."

sounds like another buying opportunity, thx.

jim

is anything known about when Swift will report...
- the next update on operations?
- the next reserves update?
- q4/13 numbers?
- an update on how the sale of their Louisiana assets is going?

Thanks - Laurin

They will release Q4 results the last week of February. I expect an operations update within the next two weeks and it should include comments about their year-end reserve report. Proven reserves should be much higher because of higher natural gas prices and their Eagle Ford drilling program.

The asset sale will be announced this quarter. May be very soon.

Shorts increased their presence in the Dec. 31 report to 13.373M shares from 13.197M at Dec. 13. They engineer these abrupt downdrafts to try to free up some shares ahead of coming announcements, but if management surprises positively with the ops update and sale proceeds, the reaction should be the steady up action I'm getting with END, for example. I sold more $12.50 Puts for February today.

I'm a but concerned that Swift's EF acreage and production is not as liquids rich as their counterparts. Anyone gave any insight on this?

Well friends - if Dan's forecast for SFY is anywhere near correct - SFY is available on a fire sale today.

Bob

SFY and EXXI are both under the shorts thumb. The Barclay's downgrade on SFY is just what they needed.

Looking at the intraday chart from late Friday, almost looks like someone knew this downgrade was coming today...............