TransGlobe Energy (TGA)

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

TransGlobe Energy (TGA)

Post by dan_s »

I'm currently updating my TGA forecast. It will be posted to the website tomorrow.

The Company made excellent progress during the first quarter of 2010. Production, funds flow from operations and net income all increased significantly over the previous quarter. The West Gharib project area continues to be a star performer in the Company's portfolio and is expected to remain the focus for continued production and reserves growth. The Republic of Yemen ("Yemen") drilling program during the second half of 2010 is anticipated to also provide low risk, development gains and very significant exploration tests. A new exploration project was added in the Western Desert area of Egypt and a new oil discovery was found in only the second well. 2010 is expected to be the Company's most active drilling year.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: TransGlobe Energy (TGA)

Post by dan_s »

I've finished the new forecast for TGA and Kim will post it to our Home Page soon.

TGA looks VERY STRONG. Per my model, Fair Value is now $8.13/share. IMO TGA does deserve to trade at a higher multiple because it will be drilling some high potential exploration wells later this year. TGA has a strong Balance Sheet and their capital program is fully funded by operating cash flows.

I would rate TGA a "Strong Buy" up to $7.50/share.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
halvin
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:47 pm

Re: TransGlobe Energy (TGA)

Post by halvin »

Dan,

When you say "triple digit potential like TGA" (in the DNR thread about core holdings) what do you mean by that? Based off of the recent projections you released you show a 2011 share price in the $8-$9 range, what is your outlook for TGA then? Are you suggesting that there is a good chance that TGA would blow through that projection? What do you recomend?

Thanks
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: TransGlobe Energy (TGA)

Post by dan_s »

TGA is up over 100% year-to-date and I do believe it has more upside. However, I doubt it will double from here.

TGA is our only pure play on oil. If oil prices go to $100/bbl, which I think is possible this year, that would take TGA much higher.

Also, TGA will be driliing some high potential exploration wells late this year. It has a lot of exploration upside.

My "Fair Value" price is what I think the stock is worth today base on what we know today.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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