Swift Energy (SFY)
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:35 pm
Swift Energy (SFY): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.
My Fair Value Estimate dropped $3.00 to $26.00. Compares to First Call's Price Target of $17.33.
If you still own this one I recommend hanging tough. The stock is oversold and should bounce back when they announce the sale of their Central Louisiana package. HOWEVER, I have to drop it from our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio because they have lowered their production guidance for 2014 and it now appears their production will decline about 4% this year.
Take a look at my forecast model. In 2013 SFY generated $7.13 CFPS and their proven reserves went up. The bad news is that their proven reserves are now only 38% liquids, down from over 50% at the end of last year.
CFPS should be over $5.00 and the company is going to make it. The stock is trading for less than 2X CFPS, which is crazy low. They need to close the sale in Louisiana at a good price, shore up the balance sheet and focus on developing their good acreage in the Eagle Ford. Higher natural gas prices will really help this one.
My Fair Value Estimate dropped $3.00 to $26.00. Compares to First Call's Price Target of $17.33.
If you still own this one I recommend hanging tough. The stock is oversold and should bounce back when they announce the sale of their Central Louisiana package. HOWEVER, I have to drop it from our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio because they have lowered their production guidance for 2014 and it now appears their production will decline about 4% this year.
Take a look at my forecast model. In 2013 SFY generated $7.13 CFPS and their proven reserves went up. The bad news is that their proven reserves are now only 38% liquids, down from over 50% at the end of last year.
CFPS should be over $5.00 and the company is going to make it. The stock is trading for less than 2X CFPS, which is crazy low. They need to close the sale in Louisiana at a good price, shore up the balance sheet and focus on developing their good acreage in the Eagle Ford. Higher natural gas prices will really help this one.