Natural Gas Storage Report - April 3

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 822 Bcf as of Friday, March 28, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 74 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 878 Bcf less than last year at this time and 992 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,814 Bcf.

This is VERY BULLISH.

Based on weather forecasts, we should have at least two more weeks of small draws from storage. This will push storage under 800 bcf before injections begin.

My guess is that inject season will start slow.

Injections season is 32 weeks long. In order to refill storage back to 3,800 bcf it will take over 90 bcf per week of injections. That is almost impossible. My guess is that we will have trouble getting storage back to 3,300 bcf before next winter starts. That will put several regions at risk of running out of gas during the winter.

Go to this website: http://www.americanoilman.com/
> Click on "Gas Storage" in the upper left hand corner
> Look at the weekly average for storage builds
> Can you see that there is no way in hell we get back to 3,800 bcf by next winter?

Traders are waiting to see how storage season starts. Next two weeks (based on current weather forecast) will be draws or very small adds. This will shorten refill season. If we are way below 2,000 bcf by end of May, there is absolutely no way to get storage level back to an acceptable level before winter arrives.