Working gas in storage was 981 Bcf as of Friday, April 25, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 82 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 790 Bcf less than last year at this time and 984 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,965 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 466 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 34 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 396 Bcf below the 5-year average of 824 Bcf after a net injection of 35 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 122 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 13 Bcf. At 981 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
The 5-year average increase for this week is 55 bcf.
We've had injections this big before in 2009 and 2010, so this is not that big of a deal although the market may react like it is.
My focus is on where we are at the end of May. If storage is more than 800 bcf below the 5-year average at the end of May, then I see no hope of storage reaching 3,500 bcf before next winter starts. Keep in mind that we started last winter with over 3,800 bcf in storage and storage levels dipped to critical levels in several areas.
Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
it looks to me like we would have to have something extra ordinary to keep storage that low by the end of may. 5 yr avg injections would put storage well above (800) at end of may. what then?
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
5-year average in storage at end of May is ~2300 bcf.
Today's report shows 981 bcf as of April 25.
To reach 1500 bcf by end of May (2,300 - 800) we need injections of over 100 bcf per week for the next five weeks. In the last six years we have only had ten weeks with injections over 100 bcf and we have NEVER had five weeks in a row at that level. In the last two years there is only one week with injections over 100 bcf. See http://www.americanoilman.com/
Do you get my point now?
This is the time of year (cool weather) when there needs to be BIG storage adds. When we get to June, demand for power generation picks up and storage adds decline.
Today's report shows 981 bcf as of April 25.
To reach 1500 bcf by end of May (2,300 - 800) we need injections of over 100 bcf per week for the next five weeks. In the last six years we have only had ten weeks with injections over 100 bcf and we have NEVER had five weeks in a row at that level. In the last two years there is only one week with injections over 100 bcf. See http://www.americanoilman.com/
Do you get my point now?
This is the time of year (cool weather) when there needs to be BIG storage adds. When we get to June, demand for power generation picks up and storage adds decline.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
yeah, I see we will most assuredly be below 5 yr avg in storage at end of may, but probably not be below by 800bcf. I think we will be about 400 below and if so we would need to inject about 2000bcf by nov--can this be done? it would be most difficult-- would have to avg about 90bcf/wk.
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
There is no way to get within 400 bcf of the five year average by the end of May. We would need to inject 200 bcf per week for the next five weeks. That is impossible.
Here is the math.
981 bcf in storage as of April 25
500 bcf added over next five weeks (probable can't happen, but let's say it does)
1481 bcf in storage on May 31, 2014
The five year average for May 31 is ~2,300 bcf, so we will be over 800 bcf under the five year average even if we do what has NEVER been done before, which is add over 100 bcf for 5 straight weeks.
I think you must be starting with the five year average as of today as your point of reference. Remember, the five year average keeps going up.
Here is the math.
981 bcf in storage as of April 25
500 bcf added over next five weeks (probable can't happen, but let's say it does)
1481 bcf in storage on May 31, 2014
The five year average for May 31 is ~2,300 bcf, so we will be over 800 bcf under the five year average even if we do what has NEVER been done before, which is add over 100 bcf for 5 straight weeks.
I think you must be starting with the five year average as of today as your point of reference. Remember, the five year average keeps going up.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
Go to this website http://www.americanoilman.com/
Click on "Gas Storage" in the upper left corner to see a table that shows the five year average by week and weekly draws and injections for the last six years.
Note that in the last six years there are only ten weeks with injections over 100 bcf. Only one in the last two years. Also note that when we get to June the weekly injections drop because of increasing demand for power generation.
Click on "Gas Storage" in the upper left corner to see a table that shows the five year average by week and weekly draws and injections for the last six years.
Note that in the last six years there are only ten weeks with injections over 100 bcf. Only one in the last two years. Also note that when we get to June the weekly injections drop because of increasing demand for power generation.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
yeah, I use that site all the time.
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
So do you now understand the math that we will be around 800 bcf below the five year average at May 31? That assumes we can get to 1500 bcf by then and I doubt we do.
Last year on April 26 there was 1,777 bcf in storage and storage reached 2,252 bcf on May 31, so 475 bcf was added to storage during the five weeks from 4/26 to 5/31. [BTW we had an extremely mild spring last year.]
This year on April 25 there was 981 bcf in storage, so if we add 475 bcf over the next five weeks (same as last year) we will have 1,456 bcf in storage. On May 31 the five year average is 2,274 bcf. 2274-1456=818 bcf below the five year average.
When it sinks in that there is no possible way to refill storage before next winter, the utilities will start bidding against each other for supply. This is what has caused the U.S. natural gas price to double four time over the last 20 years. Utilities do not care what they have to pay, since they will just pass those costs on to consumers.
Last year on April 26 there was 1,777 bcf in storage and storage reached 2,252 bcf on May 31, so 475 bcf was added to storage during the five weeks from 4/26 to 5/31. [BTW we had an extremely mild spring last year.]
This year on April 25 there was 981 bcf in storage, so if we add 475 bcf over the next five weeks (same as last year) we will have 1,456 bcf in storage. On May 31 the five year average is 2,274 bcf. 2274-1456=818 bcf below the five year average.
When it sinks in that there is no possible way to refill storage before next winter, the utilities will start bidding against each other for supply. This is what has caused the U.S. natural gas price to double four time over the last 20 years. Utilities do not care what they have to pay, since they will just pass those costs on to consumers.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
yeah, I was screwed up, sorry. 
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 1
We will write it off to your spending to much time getting that new computer system you just got up and running. 