Energy Prospectus

After listening to this morning's conference call, I have made some minor changes to the GPOR forecast model and reposted it under the Sweet 16 tab.

My Fair Value Estimate is now $77/share, which is $7/share lower than what it was before they revised guidance.

Production growth from Q1 to Q2 will be just a slight increase, but they should ramp up production rapidly during the 2nd half of this year. All they have done is push back the Utica development a few months as they take a more measured approach. By bringing wells on at lower rates they hope to increase ultimate recoveries ("EUR"). The last thing you want to do is blow down the pressure in gas wells.

One thing to keep in mind with GPOR is that they have a big stake in FANG and Grizzly. Both companies have a lot of upside.

GPOR bouncing back a bit today on high volume is a good sign. Yesterday's selloff was grossly overdone in my opinion. This is a company with over 200% production growth locked in and some VERY VALUABLE acreage in the Utica Shale.

If you listen to the conference call what you will hear is that the new CEO just wanted to slow down the pace a bit to get a better handle on their development plan. Well results are still very good and there was no talk at all about disappointments in the field.

Gulfport Energy shares should be bought on weakness, says Sterne Agee.

At least one analyst agrees with me. IMO this is just a timing issue. Production grow just pushed back a few months.

More good news

GPOR Gulfport Energy rises after new stake disclosed byJana Partners
Shares of Gulfport Energy are rising after activist hedge fund Jana Partners disclosed in a filing this morning that it has taken a new 1M share stake in the company. Shares of Gulfport Energy are up about 5.5% to $63.60 near noon following this morning's filing from Jana.

God Bless

This is a reminder that when the market grossly over-reacts to news it is usually (NOT ALWAYS) a good buying opportunity.

Timing differences related to weather, mid-stream issues, or just slowing down to re-evaluate the development plan are usually only temporary setbacks.