Energy Prospectus

Seeking Alpha
Today at 3:47 PM

Triangle Petroleum beats by $0.03, beats on revenue • 4:46 PM
•Triangle Petroleum (TPLM): FQ4 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.03.
•Revenue of $99.78M (+191.0% Y/Y) beats by $3.92M.
•Shares +0.29% AH.

Seeking Alpha

After Hour Gainers / Losers • 5:51 PM
•Top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: KANG +4.5%. PGNX +3.0%. ONNN +2.3%. TPLM +2.3%. SNMX +2.2%.
•Top losers, as of 5:15 p.m.: CASY -3.0%. SMCI -2.6%. MCK -2.5%. IMS -2.4%. REED -2.2%.

TPLM's fiscal Q1 production was slightly less than my forecast model, but consolidated revenues were slightly better. Overall a very good quarter. I will get into the details tonight or first thing tomorrow morning.

I have been working on NFX all afternoon. It really looks good!

My Fair Value Estimate for TPLM is now $14/share and I will adjust it a bit tomorrow. Stay heavily weighted to oil my friends, the chart for WTI is looking very strong.

This deal will give Q2 production a boost.

Triangle Petroleum announces acquisition of Williston Basin properties for $120M
Triangle Petroleum announces that Triangle USA Petroleum, the company's wholly-owned E&P subsidiary, has entered into two separate definitive agreements to acquire Williston Basin properties, and received bank commitments for 100% financing of the acquisitions, including a new senior secured second lien term loan facility. The company signed two separate definitive agreements to acquire approximately 46,100 net acres in a contiguous area of Williams County, ND and Sheridan County, MT: 1,175 Boepd of current production 4,450 MBoe of net proved reserves with a PV-10 value of approximately $110M based upon internal estimates as of April 30. The total consideration was approximately $120M, net of estimated purchase price adjustments and sale of acquired saltwater disposal well to Caliber Midstream Partners.

Triangle Petroleum (TPLM): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.

I've increased my Fair Value Estimate to $14.60/share.

UPDATE: Wunderlich Securities Reiterates On Triangle Petroleum Following Solid F1Q15 Results
By Dwight Einhorn

In a report published Wednesday, Wunderlich Securities analyst Jason A. Wangler reiterated a Buy rating on Triangle Petroleum (NYSE: TPLM), and raised the price target from $12.00 to $14.00.

In the report, Wunderlich Securities noted, “Triangle Petroleum Corp. (TPLM) yesterday announced solid F1Q15 results as EPS of $0.12 was just below our $0.14 estimate and in-line with the Street's $0.12 forecast. Strong revenues from the E&P business and expansions at Rock Pile drove results as revenues approached $100 million and solid EBITDA and cash flow figures (both on a consolidated and stand-alone basis) show the strong asset base of Triangle.

"We continue to believe there is ample value within Triangle that many miss given the consolidated nature of its financials, which hide the strong value in both Rock Pile (especially as the oil field services market seemingly is improving) and Caliber as the midstream/infrastructure of the Williston remains in demand and being provided in part by Triangle as it grows production, too.”

That is something to remember; the completion business in North Dakota really picks up after Spring Break-Up (now). Last year, Rock Pile's revenues doubled from Q2 to Q3.

Simmons thought the oil cut was a little light against the consensus view, but that was the only negative comment I saw among the various notes. Johnson Rice sees the spin monetization beginning 18-24 months hence.

I listened to a replay of the TPLM conference call this morning and I made a few minor changes to my forecast model and reposted it under the Watch List Tab. My Fair Value Estimate is $14.80/share.

It is important to note that the differential for their North Dakota crude oil is ~$10 below WTI. If that narrows, there is significant upside for this one. I also believe my revenue forecast for RockPile Energy Services may prove to be very conservative. There is potential for RockPile to add both more revenues and increasing profit margins during the 2nd half, above what I have in the model.