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TGA Chart looks very good

Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 5:29 pm
by dan_s
I'm not an expert "chart reader" but the last two days for TGA look very good. It is up big on heavy trading volume. The move over $10 may be significant in that it allows more funds to invest. It definitely looks like some big buy orders are coming in.

TGA is now up 225% YTD.

TGA made several presentations recently and I think it is now paying off for them.

Here is where I think TGA is heading:
Year - Production - Earnings - Cash Flow per share

2010 10,175 BOPD $0.70 EPS with $1.21 CFPS [Production rate heading into 2011 s/b near 12,000 BOPD

2011 14,500 BOPD $1.26 EPS with $1.95 CFPS [Exit rate near 17,500 BOPD and share price over $20]

2012 20,000 BOPD $2.08 EPS with $3.00 CFPS

All of this growth is being funded by operating cash flow. With Oil over $80/bbl, TGA is generating a ton of excess cash flow.
OXY and Total are getting ready to spud exploration wells in Yemen that TGA holds 25% & 20% in. These prospects have "Game Changing" potential which is not included in the numbers above. My guess it, that's why the stock is running up.

Dan

Re: TGA Chart looks very good

Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 5:33 pm
by dan_s
Let me add that TGA still has a small amount of oil hedged at $65/bbl. Just 20,000 bbls per month. That hedge expires on 12-31-2010. Cash flow going up.