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Fossil industry is the subprime danger of this cycle
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:43 am
by Bshanhou
I am very heavily invested in oil, oils service and agriculture oriented companies. Lots of EPG stocks in my portfolio. I am not sure I buy this article even for the longer term. Any thoughts?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... cycle.html
Re: Fossil industry is the subprime danger of this cycle
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:53 am
by setliff
the guy doesn't know what he's talking about. he needs to study the financial sheets of wll, clr, et al instead of relying on reports from the likes of Carbon Tracker.
garbage, imo.
Re: Fossil industry is the subprime danger of this cycle
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:30 pm
by dan_s
The article contains some good info, BUT the real story is that renewables can NEVER match the scale of oil, gas and coal. In 2013 oil, gas and coal provided over 87% of global energy supply. Renewables supplied just over 2%. Even with all the tax credits and other artificial incentives, most renewable energy projects cannot compete. Solar and Wind only produce electricity and they have limited application. The real problem is liquid transportation fuels. Hydrocarbons provide over 95% of the world's transportation fuels and there is nothing out there that can come close. Biofuels are a joke because we need the farmland for food supply.
The U.S. oil shale plays are VERY PROFITABLE at $100/bbl oil.
All of my forecast models assume $95/bbl WTI in future periods. Take a look at the Sweet 16 spreadsheet and you will see that all of our S-16 Portfolio companies are quite profitable at that price.
BTW if not for the U.S. oil shale plays the global oil supply would be on decline and oil would be over $200/bbl today.